Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1503103631079485443

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Dialog_UA/status/1503062160355872771

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The two dissenters are Russian and Chinese. Shocking!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-general-killed-after-ukraine-intercepted-unsecured-call-nyt-2022-3

This is hilarious. The Russians are literally using less secure communication than your typical street gang.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia’s fumbling invasion, visualized





Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/17/russias-fumbling-invasion-visualized/

If that's true...then a no-fly zone wouldn't even mean much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage like they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

The truth is an actual nuclear exchange between the US and Russia while it would no doubt be an utterly devastating and traumatic event would go far worse for Russia, and probably wouldn't mean the end of the world. For one we don't know how many Russian warheads are even still operational or deployable via ICBM (we've already seen how effective the Russian military is) and the US has missile defense system capable of intercepting probably most. Now that doesn't mean that it should be brushed off as no problem because "most" doesn't mean "all" and even one or two warheads slipping through would cause the death of thousands and leave presumably some major city essentially permanently uninhabitable...but it's nothing in comparison to the US counterstrike against Russia where the country might as well not cease to exist later. And even if Putin is too crazy to not realize this, almost everyone else in the Russian military and chain of command isn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uzbekistan falling is one hell of a domino, considering it's definitely not a place you'd expect to be concerned with human rights at all to put it mildly. (Even if it's not as bad now as it was under Islam Karimov, still not saying much!)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There was even a case in the beginning of the invasion where a pro-Russia mayor of a city in eastern Ukraine expressed support for the invasion and called the Russians "liberators", and was then attacked and killed by a mob. Anyone who stands with Russia here is going to face a fate similar to that of collaborationists in post-WWII France.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sanctions have completely stopped Russian tank production: https://www.unian.net/war/iz-za-sankciy-v-rossii-ostanovil-rabotu-edinstvennyy-proizvoditel-tankov-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11753992.html

....this also makes it impossible to build new parts for maintenance and repair too. Also Russian's military hardware's targeting systems is based on semiconductors imported from Taiwan. Now that Taiwan has banned imports to Russia, they no longer can maintain the weapons systems on their hardware.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1506720034462310408

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Russia's low-energy attempt at an resolution on Ukraine has failed to pass the UN Security Council. Only China joined them in voting for it, everybody else - including usual suspects India und UAE - abstained.


https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1506749470511439875

https://twitter.com/PamelaFalk/status/1506745137329758209

2 > 0 though...so do abstentions in the UN effectively count as no votes?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 > 0 though...so do abstentions in the UN effectively count as no votes?

A resolution in the Security Council needs nine yes votes to pass, and no vetoes by the big five.

9/15 is even more than a majority, and that means that yes, abstaining is basically the same as no.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia has only three of these ships total: https://tpyxa.net/2022/03/24/ukrainian-forces-have-heavily-damaged-but-most-likely-destroyed-a-russian-alligator-class-landing-ship-in-berdyansk

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine is in a much better spot for a war of attrition than Russia. The sanctions are devestating Russia and will continue to each month. Meanwhile Ukraine can be resupplied easily, the borders of Poland and Slovakia are still easy supply lines. The Slovakian border hasn't really been hit at all, and Lviv near Poland is the least impacted major city, only a few missle strikes and no urban fighting at all

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine is in a much better spot for a war of attrition than Russia. The sanctions are devestating Russia and will continue to each month. Meanwhile Ukraine can be resupplied easily, the borders of Poland and Slovakia are still easy supply lines. The Slovakian border hasn't really been hit at all, and Lviv near Poland is the least impacted major city, only a few missle strikes and no urban fighting at all

Are there any major roads into Ukraine from Slovakia? I know there are a few from Hungary through the Carpathians.

There's a actually a decent sized city right on the border, Uzhhorod. Probably the best place to be in Ukraine right now since it's probably the largest city that hasn't seen any fighting or strikes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haha, karma's a bitch.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1507092816211726338

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I doubt this will lead to much (authoritarian police state and whatnot), but something to keep an eye on:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1506995764584722439?s=20&t=SZ94JI9k...

Only like 15% of people actually report and serve. It's common to find loopholes, bribe officials or even just don't ignore summons and fall through the cracks, Russia isn't known for strictly enforced laws after all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Canada's embassy to the UN sure is based!

https://twitter.com/CanadaUN/status/1504464863510335488

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https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1507193029064593409

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Protests in Poland blocking retail chains that have not pulled out of Russia.

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Russia's only aircraft carrier has to be brought back for repairs and will be out of commission until September: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-lone-aircraft-carrier-headed-back-shipyard-201390

Although even September strikes me as unlikely with the sanctions preventing Russia from obtaining the needed parts. Regardless Russia effectively no longer has any aircraft carriers for this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine has actually gained tanks since the war began as its captured more Russian tanks than they have lost: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-has-actually-gained-tanks-during-war-while-russia-has-lost-hundreds-1691745

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1507605707713044480

Vladimir Putin is going to go down in history as one of the worst world leaders of all time. He destroyed his country's economy and superpower status for a generation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha! https://gur.gov.ua/content/sotrudnyky-fsb-rossyy-uchastvuiushchye-v-prestupnoi-deiatelnosty-stranyahressora-na-terrytoryy-evropy.html

Ukrainian intelligence just released the names of 620 FSB agents throughout Europe. And...their dates of birth, addresses, places of employment and make and registration numbers of their cars. OUCH!

The FSB in Europe is basically crippled.