I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
Posts: 113,566
Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67
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« on: October 03, 2006, 11:33:41 PM » |
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Shut-out meaning absolutely no pick ups. I did one before one the odds of a complete GOP shutout in all three, but let's look at each individually. What I say:
Gubernatorial races: 75%
The only chances they have are Maine, Iowa and a growing slimmer chance in Michigan. In all three however, the Democrat is favored. I find it fairly humorous that we basically have three governorships already won (New York, Ohio and Massachusetts [sorry Walter]), yet three is basically their max.
Senate: 50%
It basically comes down to New Jersey, because that's their only chance at a pick up now. And it's a 50/50 race right now, hence the odds.
House: 55%
The only serious chance they have at one is IL-8, and I'd bet on Bean due to her leading in every poll. In a better year they might be able to take a seat in Georgia, but not now. After that, maybe WV-1 and the polls show a long shot at VT-AL, but those are big long shots still. I'll give them a 40% chance at IL-8, and I'll be generous and assume a 5% chance at anything else.
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