if edwards is picked, can he win north carolina?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republican totals in some NOVA counties and cities:

Fairfax:

1988: 61.1%
2000: 49.8%

without Nader Gore would've likely won Fairfax.

Falls Church:

1988: 49.5%
2000: 38.1%

Arlington:

1988: 45.4%
2000: 34.2%

Alexandria:

1988: 45.7%
2000: 34.5%

yes, there's a change.

and let's look at the Virginia Beach area

Virginia Beach:

1988: 68.9%
2000: 55.9%

Newport News:

1988: 59.9%
2000: 46.7%

Chesapeake:

1988: 60.9%
2000: 53.2%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I would say more of a 3-6 point Bush win.  The GOP has lost NOVA and probably Hampton as well.  Thus the 8 point lead of 2000 mush shrink.

Gore won Hampton by almost 20 points. So yes, they have. They lost Newport News too as I pointed about. And of course in 1988 Bush I got 54.8% in Hampton vs. 40.8% for Bush II in 2000.