UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's official.

Westminster voting intention:

LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 17 May

say those are the results, then how many seats would each party get

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Gives this:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's official.

Westminster voting intention:

LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 17 May

say those are the results, then how many seats would each party get

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Gives this:

Why does a tie between labor and the Tories give them double the seats?  Very Bad.

Because Labour has a stronger base in their safe seats. The Tories would have a bloodbath in seats lost to Brexit, but the rock solid Labour seats are almost impossible to crack.

It'd be like if the Republicans and Democrats both lost massive ground to a new third party that came in first place, but the Democrats had barely any collapse in all their heavily black seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

all you can say if that result did come to pass would be that three and four way marginals would become the norm, tactical voting would become impossible and there would be loads of fluke winners (and Onasyana/O'Mara style flameouts in the ensuing parliament) and high profile losses from both Labour and the Tories.

Agree that it would be far worse for the Tories than Labour though, because the former would have no real safe regions to fall back on - even blue counties like Surrey would collapse.

The places where the Tories would probably hold up best would be in affluent exurban/rural seats where the Brexit vote was around 50/50 or so. For Labour you're looking at minority and urban post-industrial working class areas. So in the event of both parties crashing, Labour do better than the Tories.

Would Corbyn lose if Labour got 19% and the Lib Dems 24%?

From Flavible Politics, inputting the data from the poll, Islington North would look like this

Labour: 32%
Brexit: 26%
Lib Dem: 22%
Green: 9%
CUK: 8%
Conservatives: 3%

I know Brexit and the Lib Dems would normally have near zero crossover voters, but could there be tactical votes for the Lib Dems just as anti-Corbyn?