Day 49: Wisconsin

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Republicans win more in the west they win can continuously win the state, if the Dems win more in the east they can continuosly win the state. If a Republican beats Doyle the state might go Rep. in 2008, if Doyle wins re-election it'll probably stay lean Dem.

you can't judge how a state is trending from a governor's race. Is Massachusetts trending Republican?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin is tough to predict because it's so tough to poll. 3 reasons for this:

1-same day registration. Makes determining a "likely voter" almost impossible. Same thing here in Minnesota too
2-turnout in Milwaukee. Also almost impossible to predict, and even a slight variation can make a huge difference
3-Rural German Catholics. Some of the most fickle voters in the country. Very difficult to see how they'll turn. The best posters can figure this out, but still not predict the state because of 1 and 2.

So I don't think the state is trending anywhere. It's just very difficult to pin down.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Rock County so Democratic?

It's in the Madison area. Madison is the San Francisco of the midwest.