Trump will hold all of his 2016 states?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'll be hard, I say most likely not, but a much higher chance of it than Dems give credit. He only has to win one of MI, PA, and WI in order to win holding everything else. That's why Dems need to push hard in FL, NC, and AZ. He'll very likely win IA and OH again.

I'm looking over the 2016 WI exit polls. There are some things that jump out at me:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/wisconsin/president

• Obama's favorability was 52%. Clinton's favorability was 42%.
• Trump's favorability was 35%.
• Voters who found both Trump and Clinton to be unfavorable broke 60% to 23% for Trump.
• 33% of voters found Clinton to be honest and trustworthy, vs 36% for Trump
• 52% believed Clinton was qualified for the job, vs 35% for Trump(!?)
• 65% of voters were bothered by Clinton's private email server, and they broke for Trump 71% to 22%
• 71% of voters were bothered by Trump's treatment of women, but 34% of them voted Trump
• 14% of voters made up their mind in the final week, and went for Trump 59% to 30%
• 25% of voters made up their mind in the final month, and went for Trump 57% to 34%
• Only 42% of voters strongly favored their candidate of choice, and Clinton won those voters 50% to 47%
• Candidate quality that mattered the most: Clinton overwhelmingly won every response except "can bring change," which Trump won 84% to 12%
• Trump won voters aged 18-24 by 2 points, while Clinton won voters aged 25-29 by 9 points, and voters aged 30-39 by 21 points (?!)

What are my takeaways? A lot of people in Wisconsin voted Trump who had severe reservations about him, and didn't even think he was qualified to be President. They did so because they were angry at the status quo, strongly disliked Hillary Clinton, and were swayed by events in the final weeks leading up to the election. Had the Democratic nominee been someone other than Hillary Clinton, that candidate would have beaten Trump easily.

This was a perfect storm for Trump. Now, there will be some things working in his favor - IF Wisconsinites believe the economy has improved for them, and they are more optimistic about their future. Incumbency will work in Trump's favor if that's the case. However, I think it would take a miracle for fundamentals to be good enough for Trump to retain the state. He will be just as unfavorable as he was in 2016. Possibly more so.

I realize it's a mistake to make too much of a narrative out of this data. And doubly so to make too much of anecdotal evidence. But it looks to me like, even with very strong fundamentals, Trump is not winning WI. In 2020, this state is going left of the popular vote. Possibly well left of the popular vote.

You can't run on change when you're the incumbent.
You can't run against Hillary Clinton when Hillary Clinton isn't on the ballot.
You can't win with 35% approval and 35% believing you're qualified, unless your opponent is really, really, awful.

While what all you said was true and there is some really interesting takeaways from the exit polls that translate into 2016 being the a perfect storm for Trump, you're not taking into account the current situation. Trump's image has improved over the last 2 years, he is going to pick up some voters that he didn't get in addition to losing some of what he got in 2016. That's essentially what Dems don't think is possible and where the thinking is flawed. Democrats also don't think there could be a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton. While its hard to think of someone worse, its certainly possible.

Uh, no? His approvals are still garbage.