MN-GOV - The return of Tim Pawlenty?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

GOP really has no bench in Minnesota, huh?

Kind of happens when a party hasn't won a statewide office in a decade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I honestly think he'd struggle in the primary. Isn't Jeff Johnson the presumptive Republican nominee?

He only is because the MN GOP bench sucks and no one else particularly notable is running. His top competitor dropped out last week. The main opposition he has now is the former chair of the MN GOP who was leading the party when it got so broke it couldn't even pay rent on its HQ and they were facing eviction.

Pawlenty is about the only serious candidate they can get, so if he gets in he'll win the primary easily. However yeah, he's not much of a general election candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

the loss of the unbeatable Tina Smith as Democratic gubernatorial standard-bearer

Lol WHAT?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The biggest problem with that "Trump template" is that it also requires lousy turnout in certain locales across the state, especially a lot of college towns. Basically it's completely unusable against anyone but Hillary Clinton. And probably not by someone who was already woefully unpopular in parts of outstate Minnesota, ravaged it with some policies and is now a former banking lobbyist.

I think it goes without saying that Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton, and neither is Rebecca Otto, who last won this:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Olmsted County is not really that Democratic, it's just that Rochester is a terrible city for Trump and one where Obama was more popular than the average Democrat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Olmsted County is not really that Democratic, it's just that Rochester is a terrible city for Trump and one where Obama was more popular than the average Democrat.

But that's what's confusing. She didn't manage to lockdown Olmsted County but did have enough momentum to carry Anoka and Chisago. How could she perform strongly enough to flip the latter two but not strongly enough to defend the former? I would have assumed their shift would be unidirectional, not divergent.

I'm not sure where you're getting that notion. Those counties are not like Olmsted at all. Especially Chisago, which is a combo of working class rural towns and sprawl exurbis.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't even think Pawlenty would make it thru a primary.

His chief opponent, only serious one actually, is the losing candidate in 2014. I don't see how he could lose it.

But yeah, in November we'll have an R version of Evan Bayh or Ted Strickland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Rebecca_Otto/status/971377050853441536

Walz and Otto are tied for delegates right now, for the convention in June. However, Walz was the only candidate that didn't pledge to drop out if they failed to receive the DFL endorsement at the convention, so even if Otto won the endorsement, Walz may still challenge her for it.

I'm unsure of the specifics of the endorsement system, but with these numbers, I think Otto would win the endorsement, given that both Otto and Murphy are running as progressives.

Walz is arguably running to the left of Otto. And most of Murphy's supporters are grassroots activist types. I think more would go for Walz than Otto, who many see as a bland establishment type. But really its impossible to know.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the member vote. Anyone can register as a member and vote in that.

The leadership endorsed Murphy.

Otto is the only candidate who opposes legalizing marijuana.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW if both Walz and Otto plan on taking it to the primary than the endorsement doesn't really matter. Both are established politicians with strong infrastructure who can run campaigns without the advantages the endorsement provides.