Guys, this is definitely a loss. No doubt about it. The average voter doesn't keep track of partisan lean, historical elections in the district, or any of that stuff. They sit down to watch Fox and see ' (R) beats (D)'. That's pretty much it. : /
The average voter doesn't watch Fox News, nor do they care about some random special House election. This will not impact anyone's November vote. Except for political junkies, this won't even be news outside of Ohio.
The patterns on the other hand, are indicative of what's to come.