49 states of county map predictions (user search)
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  49 states of county map predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: 49 states of county map predictions  (Read 3095 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: October 15, 2016, 02:10:17 PM »

And maybe Alaska if I can figure out how to do that one.

But yeah this will happen again for the third year. Standard disclaimers:
-I won't predict in the maps the exact margin of victory for the victorious candidate, or even the victor in close states (though none now that I see as that is undoable). These are for the county maps, the actual predictions will be other threads.
-I'm doing them in no particular order, although the easier ones will probably come first. Hawaii before Texas is a no-brainer.
-They will be subject to change.
-I have in the past revised them based on constructive criticism, and am open to that, but not "OMG how could you be so dumb as to believe Hillary/Trump will win _______ county!" If you're going to disagree with something explain why and I'll take it into consideration.
-There's no set schedule or deadline for any state, aside from the obvious exception of Election Day.

And now, they begin.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2016, 02:11:06 PM »

No explanation or write-up necessary:

This one wasn't easy, but I wanted to do it and thought it would be a good one to start stimulating discussion with:
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2016, 02:28:43 PM »

What's the problem with predicting Alaska?  No "county" map or not enough past "county" data?  I think I can solve both issues.

Yeah, no map on the site to base it off.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2016, 06:35:30 PM »

LMAO Carlton County, MN.
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 12:13:30 AM »

Spark has Clinton winning Pontotoc County MS (76% Romney) but not Kemper (54% Obama) or Oktibbeha (50% Obama)

Trump is apparently going to flip Hancock County ME after Romney only got 40% there. someone sure buys into ME-2 being that 270th EV. LOL!

You're probably right actually. I just tallied it up and that's likely a 270-268 for Trump map.

But that's an awfully narrow margin and window for someone who believes:
Trump is going to win no matter what happens
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 12:14:02 AM »

Is anyone going to jump down my throat if I post a county map based on the current 2-way polling and nationwide PVI?   Can we just agree that it's a map suggesting a uniform swing and trend, and not necessarily my prediction?  It might make a good baseline for others to work off of.

That on the other hand would be quite useful.
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 11:56:04 PM »







Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,524
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 11:33:31 PM »


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