Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty good speech. He made the case pretty well. Far from his best obviously.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Text of Obama's speech:

http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/03/text-of-president-obamas-speech-on-the-situation-in-libya.php?ref=fpblg

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The "Day of Rage" against the Saudis was a complete bust, so I don't know what anyone's talking about.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which isn't then a "no-fly zone."

No one in any of the relevant governments ever said this was just a "no fly zone".  It's more a "no fly zone" + "no attack cities zone".  It's just media sloppiness fixating on the term "no fly zone" that has led to some confusion here.

Which really makes it no different than the Iraqi no-fly zones. Saddam had no power in them either because his military could've been attacked if they attempted to enter them. Kind of a silly thing to nitpick over.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder why so few countries have dropped recognition of Gadaffi. So far only France, Portugal and Qatar have recognized the rebel government. In the case of the UK and US it's odd as the UK accepted the Libyan foreign minister's defection and the Libyan ambassador to the US has also defected and supports the rebel government, effectively meaning the US now has diplomatic relations with the rebels but not Gadaffi.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah removing Gaddafi really does nothing for the west in regards to oil since he was already selling and exporting as much as possible. The best way to keep the oil flowing as much as possible would be to have Gaddafi crush the rebellion as soon as possible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not as if Gaddafi was ever our friend. I would be surprised if we bombed friendly Arab nations if there were insurrections there.

Well of course, but "the west is doing this because they're pissed at Gadaffi" is quite different from "it's all about oil and nothing else". The latter doesn't hold up as anything beyond a mere bumper sticker slogan. Removing Gaddafi isn't going to do anything to benefit western oil companies.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But let's not pretend as if Gaddafi's the most horrible guy out there. Plenty of dickish mass murderers around.

That says more about other world leaders than it does about Gaddafi. Gaddafi would have to be in at least the top 10 anyway. The only regimes I can think of that would compare are Sudan, Eritrea, North Korea and maybe one of those ex-Soviet Central Asian despots.

But I don't think trying to remove Gaddafi to get back for Lockerbie and the Berlin nightclub is something condemnable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But let's not pretend as if Gaddafi's the most horrible guy out there. Plenty of dickish mass murderers around.

Of course.  But he may be the worst mass murderer for whom an air war stands a chance of doing something about his mass murder.  I mean, there's no viable military option for dealing with North Korea for example.

That too. We shouldn't let the Nirvana fallacy dictate action.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only country the us military can do anything in apparently.

That is largely true. Look at a map to see why.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For the record today Gadaffi's forces pulled back from Ajdabiya. The town was successfully defended.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Some British commander said that if Gaddafi or his sons are in any compound being hit, they'll be considered legitimate targets.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Splendid, we have three dead kids, it seems.

If you believe Libyan state TV.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

8 Libyan Navy ships destroyed by NATO: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43106115/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

That's 38% of the entire Libyan Navy actually.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well Russia just flipped and now supports Gaddafi's ouster. Sounds like they're viewing the writing on the wall.

And France the UK have gone so far as to threaten a complete Apache bombardment on Gaddafi's main compound if Zuma's peace negotiation tomorrow fails (which we know it will.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Since Gaddafi is no longer the recognized Head of State of Libya, does that mean an assassination of him could be authorized?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the recent reports and rebel claims are true, big things could be happening. Tripoli would now be effectively cut off from supply lines.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yep more territory fell to rebels today, including one of the largest oil refineries in the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do agree though that Gaddafi would be an idiot to step down and stay in Libya. After all, Mubarak wasn't going to be prosecuted either. Even if that doesn't happen to Gaddafi, he'll be a sitting duck for anyone with a grudge/radical Islamists wanting a propaganda victory.

If Gaddafi wants to live and it looks like his goose is cooked, his only hope would be to take exile in whatever country would be willing to offer it to him (I suppose that list consists of Venezuela and Zimbabwe, maybe Belarus.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And it appears my prediction above may be correct as there are rumors circulating that Gaddafi is making plans to leave: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44192334/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade now gives Gaddafi a 77% chance of being gone by the end of August.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah as noted the only countries I could see him going into exile in are Venezuela and Zimbabwe. He would be a dumb to go to any country with a radical Islamist presence anyway as even out of power they'd still target him as a propaganda victory.

InTrade has dropped though with rumors being somewhat quelled, now at 31% to leave before the end of August. Still at almost 85% to leave before the end of the year though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well the rebels claim to have taken Brega again now, and Gaddafi's former Prime Minister and basically right hand man in his original coup has also defected.

I think it's safe to say the writing's on the wall...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Battle for Tripoli has begun. Rumor mill says Gaddafi and sons are preparing to leave.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade now paradoxically has Gaddafi higher falling before the end of the month than year:

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011
91.1% 
 
Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Aug 2011
92.0%