US House Redistricting: New York

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Love the sig BRTD.

It was Phil's idea actually.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Slaughter had no issues representing an exclusively Rochester-based seat until 2002.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wouldn't mind a court-drawn map, since it would probably threaten more upstate Republicans than downstate Democrats (the downstate Democratic seats Torie is salivating over are basically cases where the seat is currently in the 60s for Obama and would go to "only" high 50s or so. More legitimately Republican winnable seats downstate would also mean the possible end of Peter King.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Once again, NY-9 is hardly a Tel Aviv West or whatever as Al keeps pointing out. If there even is a "Jewish district" in NYC it'd be Nadler's.

And I suspect Borough Park's carving is a deliberate attempt to prevent someone like Dov Hikind getting the say over who its representative is, something that wouldn't sit well with either party.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mind you by the way I don't have a problem carving up Borough Park either since it's basically the most fascist place in America. A place that votes similar to Iraqi "elections" under Saddam Hussein that is mostly populated by zealots who salivate over murdered Palestinian children and want to massacre Iranians? Terrible terrible place. And that's not even getting started on their views on women...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mind you by the way I don't have a problem carving up Borough Park either since it's basically the most fascist place in America. A place that votes similar to Iraqi "elections" under Saddam Hussein that is mostly populated by zealots who salivate over murdered Palestinian children and want to massacre Iranians? Terrible terrible place. And that's not even getting started on their views on women...

you don't know the first thing about Borough Park.
though you probably would fit in perfectly in Berlin circa 1942.

I don't have a problem with Jews. I have a problem with cultists who admire people like Meir Kahane and Baruch Goldstein. Wasn't Goldstein actually from Borough Park?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm talking about how they vote. That the creepy monolithicism.

Dov Hikind runs the BP political machine. It's well known that he is an open supporter of Kahane, in addition to being a homophobic, racist and anti-Christian bigot (he led protests against The Passion of the Christ claiming it to be an anti-Semitic film, lol.)

What happens to natives of BP who go on to accept Christ? I have a feeling they are probably completely ostracized and shunned.

Your explanation was good up until the ridiculous and paranoid ad hominem.

BRTD, he actually is right that Orthodox Jews are far from monolithic. Even if some of the differences seem arcane to Gentiles they're very tempting to miss and very rewarding not to.

and calling BP the most fascist part of the country (while clearly knowing nothing about it) is not anti semtic??

Those question marks are unnecessary, it was certainly ignorant and I'm glad you explained some of the distinctions to him, and it still doesn't mean that one should use ridiculous ad hominems just because other people are.

What the hell is Kahanism if not fascism? It's Zionist ultra-nationalism and is basically what parties like the British National Party and Front Nationale promote if you change the targets of the rhetoric. Hell it's so extreme even Israel banned it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know the funny thing is NY Jew has attacked far more Jews in this thread than anyone else for all his accusations of anti-Semitism.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

That's boringly easy, though. All you have to do is connect it with Flatbush and East Flatbush. I also don't think specifically trying to piss somebody else off is something you should be endeavoring to do right after church.

Well I was kind of being playful there just due to how he's acting over it (as evidenced by the latest reaction as well), just pointing out that it's possible not carve it up and yet still eliminate its influence in voting. Something obviously that many Jewish Democratic leaders in New York wouldn't mind doing obviously. For the record it's even easier to do that with the Russians, that obviously doesn't make such a map an anti-Russian map, or my plan to put Staten Island in a Democratic seat by adding Park Slope an anti-Italian map. The poster in question has also complained about and attacked far more Jews than I have, though he resorts to a sort of No True Scotsman in his definition of anti-Semitism.

Anyway that map is coming up anyway. Though I know it would never pass since many current Democratic incumbents wouldn't like it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So it turns out you don't even need the black areas, you can connect it to Park Slope and the area is already 62% Obama at less than 200k residents. I should draw that one too. By the line of argument being used here though Nadler's district is an anti-Semitic one since it's basically the same principle in neutralizing the areas in Brooklyn, though it does so in a rather ugly way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah well that too probably isn't too hard. Actually if Velazquez lives where Sam says she does she'd probably end up representing this district and it could even be Hispanic majority (though I'd prefer to keep it in Brooklyn, I really don't like the districts that spill all around multiple boroughs, especially since this is often done for no real discernible reason.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here is a combination of hasids, hipsters, Hispanics and some Asians. Though the Hispanics probably won't like it since it probably won't elect a Hispanic once Velázquez retires, (26.4% Hispanic VAP now) but it's 66% Obama and obviously still safe D. I even got the hasids in Williamsburg who whine about female cyclists in:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He is from the Bronx, so no.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He is from the Bronx, so no.

like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

Is there any such notable person in the district? I have a tough time seeing them get the hipsters' vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm almost done with a pretty interesting map:

-Borough Park, Midwood and the really conservative areas in Gravesend (though I understand the Jews there aren't Hasids) in a majority black seat.
-The conservative Russian areas in a plurality black seat.
-Staten Island actually in a Democratic-leaning seat.
-The long awaited Brooklyn white liberals seat, though it's actually a Brooklyn/Queens mixture with some distinctly non-liberal parts in Queens.
-A left overs seat which is also Hispanic plurality and Velazquez probably wouldn't mind.

Now here's the crazy thing, the white liberal seat that is majority white VAP also has the highest Obama % out of all of those except the Hispanic plurality leftovers seat that has few blacks. You can draw some crazy things in NYC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.

LIC and Astoria have some.

Oh yeah I once bought a record on ebay from someone in Astoria.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First impressions:

-Yes, the earmuffs are gone.
-Staten Island's district is now much safer for Grimm, though that was probably to be expected, it figured it'd head toward Gravesend instead of Park Slope.
-That might also be the price we pay for getting rid of Turner, who had the core of that seat ripped up and put in the black majority 8th.
-I don't have enough tough time to run the numbers in Long Island now, but is King in danger? Possibly looks that way...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Senate map is hideous. Look at the butchering of Ithaca. Hasn't Cuomo already said he's vetoing it no matter what?

Are any of the ex-incumbents showing any interest in running? Hall would certainly have a pretty good chance against Hayworth in that district considering how he did in 2010 and so would Murphy against Gibson.

BTW I don't see how the new NY-4 could be vulnerable, it's true that McCarthy is an idiot but the issue she's an idiot about isn't exactly toxic in Long Island, the GOP isn't going to win a 55% Obama district there by running on gun rights. Israel should be fine too if he could still win by double digits in 2010, just shifting his seat a few points to the right isn't going to do him in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Slaughter's seat in that map is around 59% Obama. How many 59% Obama seats are held by Republicans? The only one I can think of is that one in Illinois that was barely held in 2010 against a horrible twice loser candidate and is in Illinois so Obama's margin is obviously inflated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those are around 56-57% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The 4th even in the new form strikes me as a fool's gold type of seat, it's obviously not a seat where there is a 0% or even 1% chance of ever electing a Republican, but drawing up those circumstances is really difficult and kind of contrived. Kind of like the Republicans winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts, just because it's obviously possible for a charismatic hyped up candidate to win a special election during a wave of backlash against a terrible opponent running a terrible campaign there doesn't mean you can expect it to happen. It certainly takes more than the incumbent being kind of stupid, especially when she's stupid about an issue that most people in the district agree with her on, even if it's not high on their priority list, McCarthy may not be an effective gun control advocate but the Republicans aren't going to win a Long Island seat on a gun rights campaign. Slaughter even moreso.

Besides in either case, who is going to run against beat either one? Obviously someone quite a few notches above "generic Republican" would be needed to make the race even on the radar.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

Yeah I don't get it. She's an uninteresting backbencher too.

But hey if Republican donors want to sink about a million against her instead of to vulnerable Republicans or Mitt Romney's SuperPACs, go ahead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Slaughter lost that would be like the second strongest Obama district in the country held by a Republican even after 2010 (the only other one I know of stronger for Obama as mentioned was that guy in Illinois), and if Lowey lost that would be like the fourth or fifth probably. Neither should be too worried.