the upper Midwest point 2: polls

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

yeah, that's my point. the poll watchers weren't expecting it to be so close.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

It's part of a dwindling Farmer-Progressive political cuture that is slowly being taken over by the Flyover-Megachurch political culture.  It was once a much larger area, spreading all over the upper Mississippi valley and into the Dakotas.  The area of Southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and Eastern Iowa is one of the last strongholds.  By 2020, only the cities will be Democrat, and the whole countryside will be Republican, just like rural Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Wisconsin.

not in all cases. I don't know about Iowa, but that part of Southeast Minnesota is not trending Republican at all, and the area around Duluth definately won't be going Republican any time soon.

Also, people in the rural and Democratic parts of the upper Midwest for the most part do not like the religious right. Even if they are somewhat socially conservative, they don't appreciate fundamentalists of the Falwell/Robertson variety telling them what to do, and there aren't many people in fundamentalist churches out there (mostly ethnic Catholic/Lutheran). That's why I don't think wedge issues will work here like they have in other areas. I've noticed that most of the evangelical wackos in Minnesota tend to be based out of the suburbs and I've seen many more churches there than in the rural parts, another reason I hate suburbs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

Minnesota Real Clear Politics average was Kerry 3.2; Kerry won by 3.4%. As Sam Spade noted, the Democrats in Minnesota had a better GOTV drive in this state. Conversely, the time and money Democrats spent in this generally safe state could have been poured into other states.

Iowa This state was never solid Bush. RCP average was .3%; Bush won it by .9%

Wisconsin RCP average was .9% Bush; Kerry won it by .4%. Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination.

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When you average out the state polls (and ignore anecdotal evidence) in the upper Midwest, the poll numbers are actually close. There might be a few outliers here and there, but nothing that would construed an overestimation of Republican support.

is this an average of ALL polls? The numbers were much more in Bush's favor than they were during the summer. Also does it include crappy polls like Zogby Interactive and the StarTrib ones that probably brought Kerry's average way up?