A House Divided

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America stands in a precarious position. India and China begin their slow rise to power while the Middle East struggles to solve its problems with sectarian violence. The 2016 presidential election is critical: many are fed up with the Obama administration, but the Democrats still have the demographics on their side. The winner in this contest will be an unlikely one, but will have an undeniable impact on history...
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Milwaukee, Wisconsin. On a chilly October afternoon in the year of 2015, a woman beloved by many people, but hated by others stood. Her face showed age, but vigor and determination still showed through her vibrant blue eyes. This woman was Hillary Clinton: a woman who has had many expectations, and somebody who has been the subject of political buzz since President Obama won his fight for reelection. News cameras fixated on her as she walked up to the podium to speak to the enormous crowd eager to hear what she said, and an eager nation that was holding their breath.

"Welcome. I want to thank you all for coming on this chilly afternoon."

The former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State drew in a deep breath of the frigid air as she surveyed the crowd. Thousands of eyes appeared to glimmer with hope, and she knew millions waited to pounce on her next words.

"I feel honored to have served this country for many years. I stood faithfully by my husband as he went through the ups and downs of his presidency. I served the state of New York as its senator, and then the nation as Secretary of State. I faced many challenges in public office, but have come back with courage for the people of this great nation. I may not be perfect, but I served with the best of my ability, and the fullest of my heart."

The crowd roared, the energy radiating from them seeming to speed up the vibration of the air molecules around them.

"Many people have spoken about me since my retirement. Many people have wanted me to run for the highest office in the US, one I have pursued and the people around me have supported my pursuit."
The crowd started its chant as a metronome of "Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!" She smiled, nodded her head, and waved her hand in a gesture to quiet the crowd.

"Thank you, I truly appreciate your support. However, I have not come here to push anymore. As I stated, I have served this great nation for many years, but this time must come to an end. My husband and I are finally getting a relationship as close to one we had just after our marriage, and my decision is not to run for President of the United States. I will fully support whoever the Democratic Party chooses to nominate and will campaign on their behalf. I want to truly thank you for all of the wonderful support I have been given these many decades I have spent in the public spotlight, and I hope you can continue to support the values I have worked to uphold all of these years."

She smiled and waved as she stepped off of the podium and took her husband's hand. There were isolated vocal displays of frustration and disappointment initially, but after a few seconds the crowd began to take up a feverish cheer. To the dismay of the event security, the Clintons walked into the crowd and began to shake hands. After seeing a number of people, they exited the park and stepped into the car waiting nearby. Some fanatics, mainly media paparazzi, started chasing after the car.

Some were bewildered and disappointed; some were giving a sigh of relief and joyful. One thing was sure: 2016 was suddenly up for grabs, and they were ready to pounce.

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"The Democratic Party needs a strong woman candidate that can appeal to a wide range of Americans. My support was behind Hillary, but after she gracefully bowed out, I feel compelled to run in order to make a stand for the values of progressivism and to continue to bring the Democratic Party policy to the middle class American. I officially announce my candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency of the United States."

-Senator Amy Klobuchar in Minneapolis on October 18, 2015


"After careful consideration, I have decided to announce my candidacy for President. I have made many advancements in my state of Maryland serving as its governor, and I want to bring these reforms that improve the quality of life of the average American to Washington that is largely ruled by special interests and turns a deaf ear to the middle class citizen."

-Governor Martin O'Malley in Baltimore on October 18, 2015


"Eight years of the Obama administration has taken an enormous toll on America. We need somebody who can control the the government that has inflated out of control, and I believe that I am the best man to do that job. That is why I have decided to officially announce my candidacy for the presidency."

-Senator Rand Paul in Louisville on October 19, 2015


"The damage has been done. It is time we get common sense back in Washington, and not anymore snobby politicians who won't compromise. If we want to get this party back in the White House, we need common sense, and that is why I am running for president."

-Governor Chris Christie in Newark on October 20, 2015


"I hope that the Republican Party recognizes its mistake in not picking me to be its nominee in 2012. I have some of the strongest conservative credentials and can truly reverse what burdens the Obama administration has placed upon the American people."

-Former Senator Rick Santorum in Des Moines on October 22, 2015

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Cruz, Gillibrand mum on presidential prospects while Hickenlooper rises
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
20 October 2015, updated 7:56 PM EST

Gillibrand and Cruz in 2013, when they worked together on a bipartisan bill

The presidential race has exponentially expanded in proportion after Clinton's announcement that she will not be seeking the presidency. Many big players have entered the race so far, but more are still expected to do so. One of those that are the subject of speculation is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who has made comments alluding to a possible presidential run since 2013. Many have considered a run from him likely, but he has remained vague in his comments relating to a possible run, stating that "he is weighing his options" and that "the presidential race is in dire need of a strong conservative."

Another widely speculated candidate is Senator Gillibrand of New York, who rose into the national spotlight after her speech calling for massive defense spending reform and her success in passing multiple related bills in 2014. Much of the Hillary camp has pushed her to run, giving her a possible enormous base of support. So far she has states that a run is "not out of the cards" but that it will be a hard decision to make. However, another person that faces rising speculation is Governor Hickenlooper of Colorado, even though he has repeatedly said no to a presidential run before. Theoretical polls place him at 3rd place at 15%, but his numbers have steadily risen in the past few months and continue to rise. He is increasing in popularity among progressives due to his successful lead in the implementation of marijuana legalization in Colorado, and many consider him to be a better candidate than Klobuchar or O'Malley. Governor Hickenlooper has not responded to these messages yet.

Here is the polling thus far for the people who have officially declared their candidacy. Governor O'Malley leads with a slim 3% margin on the Democratic side, but with a significant chunk of undecideds, while Senator Paul has just under a 2% lead in the Republican field. These numbers are apt to change quite a bit more as we get closer to the the Iowa caucus.

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Santorum to Cruz: "Let's not split the conservative vote"
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
23 October 2015, updated 2:47 PM EST


Santorum at one of his town hall meetings in Iowa back in 2012.

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum is clearly trying to avoid many mistakes he made in 2012, and is getting his campaigning off to a very strong start. He has participated in a number of town halls across the state of Iowa over the course of the past few days, and is trying to garner support among rural Evangelical conservatives. He spoke about keeping "traditional social values" and "undoing the damage of the Obama administration" in regards to Obamacare and the regulations placed on Wall Street. Santorum is trying to build upon his Base from the Iowa caucus in 2012, where he won a plurality in the popular vote. His polling has increased due to these trips, but today it has garnered a lot of attention due to the fact that he made a call at one of his meetings for Ted Cruz, who is still on the fence about a presidential run, to keep out.

He spoke about how important it was for a "ideologically pure" candidate to be picked by the Republican Party over a "wishy-washy moderate," and that in order for that to happen, he wanted to prevent any other conservative from entering the race to prevent infighting and vote splitting so that they have a better shot at winning the nomination. There are multiple potential conservative candidates that could enter the race, but the major one is Senator Ted Cruz. Theoretical polling is placing support for a Cruz candidacy higher than a Santorum one, which could be one reason why Santorum made these remarks. Senator Cruz has replied only by saying that "he is weighing his options," and that "healthy competition keeps politicians sharp."

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"The Republican field lacks someone with common sense paired with the drive and the willingness to compromise in order to get things done in our deadlocked Congress. I have come to understand how I can get Washington to turn its wheels once again, but I cannot bring my ideas to fruition while remaining in Congress. Even though I have been honored to represent the people of Alaska, I hope that they can support my candidacy for the presidency of the United States.”

-Senator Lisa Murkowski in Anchorage, Alaska on October 25, 2015

“I have come here today to announce that I will not be running for president. I have loved to serve as the governor of the state of New Mexico, and I do not want to leave this state and put my family, especially my sister, under the stresses of an international campaign. For these reasons, I have decided that my family is more important to me, and that I will support whoever the Republican Party chooses.”

-Governor Susana Martinez in Santa Fe, New Mexico on October 28, 2015

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“I have seen how much deadlock there is in Washington, and I know that the people are fed up with it. The state of Colorado, a tossup in presidential elections, has re-elected me to Congress, and they have seen my ability to compromise while still getting things done. We need somebody who can continue President Obama’s progress while accelerating the pace of it and getting even more done. That is why I have made the decision to run for President of the United States."

-Senator Mark Udall in Pueblo, Colorado on October 25, 2015

“Many people have asked whether or not I will run for president. I have tossed the question to myself and my family a number of times, and I have finally made my decision that I will not be running. I have been honored to be able to serve as governor of the wonderful state of Colorado, and have decided to endorse Senator Udall for the Democratic nomination.”

-Governor John Hickenlooper in Denver, Colorado on October 26, 2015

“I have been honored to serve the state of Massachusetts through periods of despair and hope. This state has sticked together and become much more prosperous than ever before. I have decided to declare my candidacy for president so I can bring the prosperity of Massachusetts to the nation and bring America into a new era.”

-Governor Deval Patrick in Boston, Massachusetts on October 27, 2015

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POLLING CENTER
-October 27, 2015-

The latest round of polling results are in for the developing 2016 presidential race, and the polls are only becoming closer. Both leaders have dropped with the entrance of more people, but newcomers Udall, Patrick, and Murkowski are all in the bottom of the pack. The only person who has experienced a noticeable increase since last polling cycle is Santorum, who has been boosted by his very public appearances in town hall meetings.

These polling numbers are not exactly reflective of what polls in Iowa look like. Udall and Murkowski, currently in the back of the pack nationally, are both polling very well in Iowa. Governor Christie, who has faced enormous speculation leading up to this election season, is falling in Iowa with Murkowski close behind. Even though he has a lead looking towards New Hampshire, he is quickly falling in Iowa which could enormously damage his campaign. Senator Cruz, in theoretical polling, ranks second place nationwide and in Iowa. Even though Iowa is only one state out of 50 that takes a step towards deciding both parties candidates, it has had a huge effect on who gets elected, and if a candidate can make it here then they can make it anywhere.

ANN IOWA CAUCUS DEMOCRATIC TRACKING
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota- 27%
Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland- 26%
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado- 20%
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts- 11%
Undecided- 13%

ANN IOWA CAUCUS REPUBLICAN TRACKING
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky- 23%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania- 23%
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey- 20%
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska- 17%
Undecided- 19%

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Murkowski: "My credentials are stronger than Christie's"
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
30 October 2015, updated 5:24 PM EST



In an interview with our own Anderson Cooper today, Murkowski made the case that moderates should vote for her over Christie because she has the stronger credentials. She spoke about her ideas on a number of topics during the interview, with a special emphasis on compromise. She stated that "the Republican Party in its current state is too adverse or compromise, and that is what is making the American people be more favorable to the Democratic Party." She emphasized the fact that she was willing to compromise to get things done instead of "retreating to another form of partisan gridlock." In preparation for the upcoming Iowa caucuses, she also responded to a number of questions about the other candidates, especially Chris Christie, who is closest to her ideologically out of the group. She stated that he has the personality and charisma with none of the credentials to back it up, and that as the Governor of New Jersey he failed to accomplish many of the things that he set out to do.

Senator Murkowski, regularly considered the underdog in the race, has been steadily rising in polls. Many have cited Christie's potential to have an abrasive personality at times, while Murkowski holds a more agreeable personality. However, she struggles with having significantly less name recognition than Christie, and has a significant amount of ground to make up if she wants to make it big in Iowa.
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Warren, Cuomo opt out of the presidential race
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 November 2015, updated 1:03 PM EST



Two national names in the Democratic Party, Governor Cuomo of New York and Senator Warren of Massachusetts have opted out of a run today. Cuomo stated that now was simply not his time, and that serving as New York's governor has been enough of a fulfillment to him. Senator Warren, who has become known for her strong progressive economic policy making, has opted out of the race because she feels that she can make more impact towards shaping laws and heading committees in the Senate than she ever could in the presidency. A number of people have expressed disappointment over these decisions not to run, as there was a lot of support building up behind each.

Now, the bulk of speculation for the Democratic field turns to Senator Gillibrand, who would command the Democratic field in polling should she run. A lot of the Clinton camp has pushed Gillibrand to run, and now with Warren out, a lot of her support base has began to push her to run. She has only responded by stating that she needs to "weigh her options carefully" and that she "has not made a decision."
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BREAKING: Senator Cruz announces presidential run
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 November 2015, updated 8:59 PM EST



At a rally just outside of Houston today, Senator Cruz ended enormous speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by confirming that he will enter the race. He stated that there needs to be a "passionate conservative with the drive to get things done without sacrificing values." This ends tremendous speculation surrounding a run from him, and preliminary polling shows him at third place nationally and first in Iowa. Cruz has had a significant effect on the polling of Paul and Santorum, while Christie and Murkowski have remained relatively steady. Right now is too early to see reactions from any other candidates, but they will surely trickle in. Cruz has not hesitated in labeling Santorum as an unviable option and a candidate of the past.

8:59 PM: Santorum has responded by saying "I wish that conservatives would work together, instead of fighting amongst ourselves. Do you want a ideologically impure candidate to represent this party?"

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To hold you guys over until the next big update, here is the Senate as of 2015, with the outcomes of the big races in 2014.

SENATE OF THE 116th CONGRESS - JANUARY 2015
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PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE: Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
MAJOIRTY LEADER: Harry Reid (D-NV)
MAJORITY WHIP: Richard Durbin (D-IL)
MINORITY LEADER: John Cornyn (R-TX)
MINORITY WHIP: John Thune (R-SD)

Kentucky: Allison Grimes (D) def. Mitch McConnell (R) - D Gain
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis (R) - D Hold
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) - D Hold
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Mead Tredwell (R) - D Hold
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) def. Bill Cassidy (R) - D Hold
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) - R Gain
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) - R Gain
Montana: Corey Stapleton (R) def. Stephanie Schriock (D) - R Gain
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def. Natalie Tennant (D) - R Gain

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JANUARY 18, 2016

Welcome to ANN’s coverage of the 2016 Iowa Caucuses. I am Wolf Blitzer, and I will be your host tonight. With us, we have ANN’s own Anderson Cooper and political analyst and journalist Abby Huntsman in order to give us some insight into tonights events. Later tonight, we will also have a special visit from Governor of New Mexico, Susana Martinez.

HUNTSMAN: Thank you Wolf, I am happy to be here.

Tonight will have big repercussions on the rest of the season. These Iowa caucuses make history by being the first to have both parties hold theirs on the same day due to scheduling conflicts, which means all eyes will be watching tonight intently. Even though Iowa is far from being the chief decider of the presidential race, nobody can deny its impacts. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie, long considered to be the front runners of the race, have been battling hard for a victory in this race. However, we cannot deny that Rand Paul and the rising star Lisa Murkowski have something to fight for in this race. On the Democratic side, the big names Martin O'Malley and Amy Klobuchar have been sparring for Iowa, but Deval Patrick and Mark Udall have still taken a significant amount of attention and voters. There is also the wildcard Howard Dean, which has the distinct possibility to affect the outcome of Iowa.
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Early on in the counts, Christie and O'Malley lead. However, more westward in polling we have found more support for Klobuchar and Cruz, so these leads could be futile. Stay tuned for more, bust first, here are some candidates responses to the recent announcements on Twitter:

Martin O'Malley: Let's keep representing, Iowa! #O'Malley2016
Ted Cruz: The night is early, but conservatives in Iowa will have their voices heard! #CruzForAmerica
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The first race that we are prepared to call tonight is the Democratic one, and that Senator Klobuchar will be the winner with 29% of the vote at 89% reporting. Governor O’Malley is only a percentage point behind, but at this point it is near impossible for him to make up the percent deficit behind Klobuchar that he has held for most of the night.

Klobuchar was generally considered the favorite to win Iowa due to her appeal to more rural Midwestern democratic voters that O’Malley did not have. Here with us to talk about the results is Abby Huntsman, who I introduced at the beginning of the broadcast.

HUNTSMAN: Thanks Wolf. First off, I think that Klobuchar’s victory is in no way a surprise. O’Malley just did not have the person to person appeal that she has with voters in the Midwest. However, when we look forward to New Hampshire, O’Malley has the edge. However, he will have to watch for Patrick, who could have a breakthrough in New Hampshire. This boost from a victory in Iowa will help, but the race is far from decided.
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And we finally have enough information from the Republican race to call a victory for Senator Cruz. Much like the Democratic race, the runner up Chris Christie only lost by a percentage point.

The race was really considered a toss up between Cruz and Christie. Both have shown themselves to occupy very different places in the party. It is also notable that Senator Murkowski passed the auspicious 15% “eligibility” line, marking a significant increase from the 9% she polled upon entry to the race. Here to make an analysis of the results in Iowa for the GOP is Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico.

MARTINEZ: Thanks for inviting me here tonight, Wolf. First off, I must establish that I am not all too surprised to see Cruz win in Iowa. Many Republicans are wary of another urban, Northeastern politician and can relate more easily to Cruz. However, Christie is far more in his element in New Hampshire, and it would not be hard to see him pulling a victory in New Hampshire. However, I think that we all need to watch out for Murkowski. She has a lot of the right traits for the Presidency without being tarnished by the spotlight for a long period of time, like Cruz and Christie have. If they don’t stop her now, she will become a force to be reckoned with for the rest of the season.

Thank you Governor. That will conclude our coverage of the 2016 Iowa caucuses. From me and all of ANN, we hope you have a good evening and will join us again.

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Jindal drops out, endorses Murkowski for GOP nomination
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
19 November 2016, updated 3:34 PM EST

 

In New Orleans, former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal announced that he is withdrawing his name from the Republican nomination process. He stated that he is disappointed that he has to drop out, but that it is for the good of the party. In his speech, he endorsed Senator Murkowski for the GOP nomination, citing her moderate record and what he calls her “electability and relatability.” Pundits are not surprised seeing Jindal drop out, since his 6% showing was low, but some are surprised that he chose to endorse Murkowski instead of Christie. Governor Martinez’s endorsement of Murkowski, who has quite a bit of clout even considering the fact that she declined to run for president, had a factor in Jindal’s decision.
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Candidates debate in New Hampshire: Christie, Murkowski, Udall, and O’Malley come out on top
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
22 November 2015, updated 10:07 AM EST



Both parties held debates last night in New Hampshire in preparation for the New Hampshire primaries on the 26th for the Democrats and the 27th for the Republicans. On the Democratic side, Udall and O’Malley came off as the strongest candidates based on voter polling. O’Malley pushed for nationwide legalization of gay marriage as soon as possible, and presented himself as staunchly liberal on social issues. Udall presented a very strong program for clean energy implementation as well as support for greatly reducing the scope of the NDAA (which he was a strong opponent before it was passed) and the NSA. Howard Dean received some applause for presenting a very progressive platform, but he has been criticized for being idealistic and having no substance to his ideas.

On the Republican side, Christie and Murkowski were considered to be the victors by viewer polls. Senator Cruz was by far the most vocal of the candidates and took up around half of the air time. Cruz took a very hardline conservative stance on many issues, but Murkowski and Christie responded with more moderate responses and were both willing to compromise. Christie was very no-nonsense and called Cruz’s ideas “stupid” on occasion, which got him some fans, but many people thought he was irritable and had an abrasive personality. Murkowski on the other hand came off much more polite and concise with her answers. Voters polled her, by far, the most relatable of all of the candidates, and non-issue voters, if those even exist in the primary season voter base, are most likely voting for her. Every day, Murkowski is gaining more and more support, and this could turn into a three way race if she continues her momentum.

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- January 26, 2016 -
GOVERNOR O'MALLEY COMFORTABLY WINS DEMOCRATIC CONTEST IN NH



As of 7:15 PM, ANN can project that Governor O'Malley will win the New Hampshire primary. Senator Klobuchar, the victor in Iowa, is three points behind, with Governor Deval Patrick in third place and five points behind Klobuchar. Governor Dean's numbers have gone down since Iowa, which spells some very bad things for his future in this race. Here with us to make some sense of these results is our political analyst Abby Huntsman.

HUNTSMAN: I am not surprised by this result. New Hampshire was O'Malley's to win all along. However, the Colorado and Utah caucuses are next in the New Democratic schedule, where it is looking like there is a distinct possibility that Udall could make a breakthrough in both. O'Malley, if he will be his party's nominee, will have to watch this state closely come general election season, as I could see anybody in the field, aside from Senator Cruz, putting that state solidly in play.
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- January 27, 2016 -
GOVERNOR CHRISTIE NARROWLY WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY



ANN feels comfortable projecting that the victor in New Hampshire will be Governor Christie. New Hampshire has been polling in his favor since the first polls were held, but Murkowski came only a percentage point behind beating him. Murkowski has risen in the ranks quickly, and the Christie camp is probably very concerned. Cruz is four points behind Murkowski, while Santorum's support base has has shrunken considerably to nine percent with many of his potential voters going for Cruz. Here with us to make some sense of these results is our political analyst Abby Huntsman.

HUNTSMAN: Of course, a Christie victory is really no surprise. He will surely put the state into play if he wins his party's nomination. However, he and Christie need to keep an eye on Murkowski. It is not likely she will win South Carolina, but Nevada is solidly in play and she could win it easily. Florida, a big delegate prize coming up, is a state where she is competitive as well. She has really come up fast and this race is quickly turning into a triopoply as opposed to the expected duopoly of the polar Christie and Cruz.

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Patrick, Santorum suspend presidential campaigns
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
3 February 2016, updated 3:13 PM EST



After disappointing showings in the past few primaries and caucuses, Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania have chosen to suspend their respective presidential campaigns. Santorum stated that he is disappointed by the past few showings, and that he will not run for president again, but that he does not wish to continue splitting the conservative vote. He gave his endorsement to Senator Cruz, saying that he is the best man and the strongest candidate to carry the party and bring it back to its roots.

Patrick stated that it is clear he does not have enough support for the nomination, so he has chosen to drop out for the sake ofparty unity. He endorsed O'Malley for the Democratic nomination, giving him an important boost in what has been a close fight between Klobuchar and O'Malley for the top spot in most contests. At this point in the primaries, the fields for both parties are being slimmed down quickly and we are seeing the big players emerge. The Democratic field is down to three, while the Republicans still have four that all have a competitive chance at their parties nomination.
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Sandoval competitive with Reid, but other Senate Republicans vulnerable
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
4 February 2016, updated 6:50 PM EST



Former Governor Brian Sandoval announced his challenge for Reid's senate seat around two months ago, and at this point, he is far ahead of all competitors and very likely to win the primary. Right now, he is polling 47% to 49%, which is much closer than any of Senator Reid's margins of victory have been so far. Sandoval has made a lot of inroads with the Hispanic community in Nevada, which is one of the few Republicans that have been able to do so on this scale. This is digging into Reid's base and putting his seat in danger.

Although the Republicans are competitive in Nevada, they are losing a number of other Senate races. Senator Kirk is retiring after his term is up next year, and Illinois is naturally more favorable to the Democrats. Congressman Schock is likely to win his party's primary, but he is facing an uphill climb against. Senators Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin are both polling behind their respective Democratic challengers, which puts the Republican Party in a very tough spot and unlikely to meet their strong performance in the 2014 elections.


7 out of 8 of the races that are currently toss-up have Republican incumbents.

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Cruz: This is the end of the road for non-conservative candidates
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 February 2016, updated 6:50 PM EST



In an interview today, Senator and presidential candidate Ted Cruz stated that the Republican Party “can only go in a conservative direction” with its nomination process. He claims that recent infighting in the moderate faction of the GOP between the establishment Christie and upstart Murkowski is a sign that a moderate candidate will only create more issues that prevent the party from ascending to the White House. The senator’s allegations are based off of a recent debate, held after Florida, that pitted Christie and Murkowski against each other in an argument over who had the better record. Murkowski claimed that as Governor, Christie did little to help New Jersey while she had a record that showed she was willing to compromise in the Senate. Christie came back by saying that Murkowski would not be “tough enough” to get real work done in Congress and that his executive experience in New Jersey is more applicable than experience as a Senator.

Cruz claim that it splits the party is rather accurate based on polling data. Cruz holds a plurality of support in the overall GOP at the moment with 38%. Murkowski has 29%, and Christie has 27% with Paul in last place with 6%. The self proclaimed moderates that vote for Murkowski and Christie, however, make up a bloc of 56% of voters. All signs in this party’s contest show that it will be a very long a divisive presidential primary season.
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- February 7, 2016 -
MURKOWSKI WINS MINNESOTA, COLORADO, CRUZ TAKES MISSOURI







Today, Murkowski has really reaffirmed her status as a frontrunner in this race through victories in the Minnesota and Colorado contests. She has shown herself to be very popular in the West and Midwest, and these victories help confirm this. However, Cruz took Missouri by a fairly comfortable margin. Murkowski has a fair amount more delegates than Christie, and his campaign is largely on damage control.

HUNTSMAN: A lot of the right things have been said already. Christie is the third wheel right now and something major has to happen if he wants to get himself back in the top spot. Murkowski was really sucsessful in displaying as Christie having all of the charisma and none of the substance, while she has shown herself to have all of that, along with a no nonsense but still somewhat pragmatic attitude. She is looking like the one to beat.
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- February 13, 2016 -
O'MALLEY TAKES SOUTH CAROLINA



On the much quieter Democratic side of the contests, O'Malley has won the South Carolina contest by a fairly comfortable margin. O'Malley has polled very well among African-Americans in the primaries since Governor Patrick's exit and this is very likely one of the major elements that contributed to his victory.

HUNTSMAN: Being the Governor of Maryland certainly helps with picking up the African-American vote. He knows what they need and a lot of the social programs he implemented in Maryland were aimed at helping them specifically. If he becomes the nominee, I would expect him to have a lot more clout in the south than President Obama did in 2008 and 2012, even with the monolithic black vote.
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- February 16, 2016 -
O'MALLEY ROUNDS OUT CAROLINAS



O'Malley rounds out his victory in South Carolina a few days ago with a victory in North Carolina today. This victory was just as strong as the one in South Carolina, and not very much of a surprise considering that polling indicated this exact thing occurring.

HUNTSMAN: I really don't have much to say about North Carolina than I already said about its southern counterpart. North Carolina was the only swing state that went for Romney in 2012, and North Carolina is very likely to be in play this year, especially if O'Malley is the nominee.
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- February 23, 2016 -
O'MALLEY CONTINUES VICTORIES IN ARIZONA, MICHIGAN





The Governor of Maryland continues to have very strong showings in the Democratic contests. He wins the Arizona and Michigan contests today, although it is important to note that Klobuchar only trailed him by 4% in Michigan. At this point, O'Malley has created a solid delegate lead, but Klobuchar could catch up easily through a victory in a big contest.

HUNTSMAN: These contests are the final ones before Super Tuesday for the Democrats. Super Tuesday, from what we can see now, will be far from a deciding match for this party. Klobuchar has a lead in Texas, which is an enormous delegate grab and could easily put her above O'Malley. There is also the element of Udall, who could realistically take away enough delegates from either to prevent a breakthrough from either. However, this does not appear to be headed to convention in any stretch of imagination.
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- February 28, 2016 -
CRUZ TAKES ARIZONA, CHRISTIE WINS BIG IN MICHIGAN





ANN can bring you some more intriguing news, this time with the Republican Party. Christie has secured a two percent margin of victory over Murkowski in Michigan, while Cruz made a less exciting victory in Arizona. This is likely the fuel that Chrstie's campaign needs to keep going. It was looking like he was finished for a week or so, but that might not be so. Christie is still far behind in the delegate count, but Michigan is a decently sized prize that can propel hm back in the nomination race.

HUNTSMAN: A Christie breakthrough was largely unexpected at this point. I think that Michgan, with a balance of rural and urban atmospheres most closely associated with the northeast, and felt the most relatable with a northeastern moderate over an Alaskan maverick or a Texan conservative. A Christie victory in this state shows is that he could still win state in the Northeast, including New York, or possibly even California. A key lesson to learn from these Republican primaries is that nobody should underestimate the underdog, from the rise of Murkowski to Christie fighting back.
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Looking to Super Tuesday: what needs to happen?
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
28 February 2016, updated 9:16 AM EST

Super Tuesday, one of the most important days in the primary season is coming up quickly. Sometimes it can be the day to decide races, but this year, the Democratic and Republican field is so closely locked that it appears unlikely a breakthrough will be made. Here are the Republican side of the races:


Senator Lisa Murkowski Alaska: 132 delegates
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 128 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 117 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (unpledged)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates

Senator Murkowski has pulled a lead due to victories in some big winner take all contests, but Cruz is only a meager 4 delegates behind and Christie only 9 behind Cruz. Senator Paul, who ended his bid after Missouri, has not endorsed a candidate yet, and therefore his delegates are unpledged. His delegates could end up making the difference, and it is likely he will go for Murkowski or Cruz, as he has a very long history of disagreement with Christie. Anybody could feasibly pull ahead on Super Tuesday.


Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 145 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 132 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 88 delegates
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates

Governor O’Malley holds a slim lead in the Democratic field. Overall, this race is shaping up to be a very close two way race. If Udall wants to have a legitimate shot at the nomination, he is going to have to pull out some big victories tomorrow.

[Heptahedron]

O’Malley wins slight edge in Democratic Super Tuesday contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 March 2016, updated 6:53 PM EST



Martin O’Malley has expanded his lead in the Democratic field of candidates through today’s Super Tuesday contests. O’Malley won a majority of the contests today, which were in his strong areas of the South and Northeast. Klobuchar won the big prize of Texas and Udall kept his campaign afloat through a narrow victory in Oklahoma. Udall has stated that he would like to keep his campaign running because he believes that he has the best ideas and appeal to keep the Democratic Party in the White House. O’Malley made a statement to supporters in Portland today, stating that he hopes to keep his campaign going strong to get a “real progressive” representing the party. The current delegate allotment is as follows:


Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 312 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 287 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 162 delegates
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates
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Cruz wins big in GOP Super Tuesday contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
6 March 2016, updated 6:10 PM EST



The true impact of the split of the moderate vote has reared its head today. Cruz took a number of winner take all contests, giving him an enormous delegate lead, while Murkowski and Christie remain neck and neck, but far behind. Senator Paul gave Murkowski a crucial edge after he endorsed her and gave up his big prize of 35 delegates to her. Cruz made a speech to supporters in Salt Lake City, where the crowd was extremely energized by his performance in the primaries. He told supporters that “the Republican Party finally understands that they can not nominate a weak candidate again” and that “he sees the light at the end of the tunnel.” Christie and Murkowski have both expressed what they feel the dangers of a Cruz candidacy would be, and they have both called on each other to drop out to end the split of the moderate vote. The current delegate counts are as follows:


Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 394 delegates
Senator Lisa Murkowski Alaska: 211 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 207 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (pledged to Murkowski)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates

[Heptahedron]

Udall suspends campaign, endorses O’Malley
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 March 2016, updated 8:52 PM EST



Senator Mark Udall announced today that he is suspending his presidential campaign, and he has decided to endorse O’Malley for the Democratic nomination. In his speech in Denver, Colorado, he stated that he ran a “strong campaign, but simply did not have the momentum to make it.” He wants the Democratic party to rally around O’Malley in order for the party to look stronger looking towards the general election. Udall was able to pull a victory in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday, but he remained very far behind O’Malley and Klobuchar.

At this point in the Democratic contest, O’Malley appears to be pulling a greater lead over even Klobuchar. It is still a decent distance away from the finish line, but this race is not too close. O’Malley has continued campaigning, and he has spoke of uniting the party and has largely moved past attacks on other Democrats. He has been attempting to create an advantage for the Democrats over the Republicans, as the GOP is still embroiled in a three way war.
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Murkowski pulls out enormous lead, Christie falls out of contest
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
1 April 2016, updated 2:07 PM EST



Over the course of March, we have seen yet another enormous shift in the Republican contest. Super Tuesday might have been overwhelmingly for Cruz, but the rest of March has had a very strong showing for Murkowski. The Republican Party decided to host a post-Super Tuesday debate in order to make a more decisive primary fight, and this debate overwhelmingly favored Murkowski. The Alaskan senator tore Cruz down on his “weak” stances on social ideas as well as tearing Christie down on his record as Governor, stating that he has the personality, but nothing to back it up. Also, there were allegations that came out questioning Christie’s credibility over an FBI investigation of his lieutenant governor Kim Guadagno, which hurt his polling and allowed Murkowski to take much of his Northeastern Republican base under her wing. Her dominance in the debates has certainly helped her performance this month, as she was able to flip big winner take all states such as Pennsylvania and New York.

Murkowski has brought herself just short of the number of delegates needed for victory, and although Cruz remains competitive, it becomes decently likely that Murkowski can clinch the nomination. Christie is effectively out at this point, but he has stated that he refuses to drop out at this point, and likely wants to take the nomination to convention in an attempt to win it. Murkowski and Cruz have attempted to shore up voters and repair the broken view of the Republican Party by taking cross country campaigns and rallies. Below is the current map and delegate counts as of now. An important note is that North Dakota and Tennessee were incorrectly projected for Cruz on Super Tuesday, but after full counts they actually went for Murkowski.


Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: 1146 delegates
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 856 delegates
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 276 delegates
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 35 delegates (pledged to Murkowski)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania: 4 delegates (pledged to Cruz)
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 0 delegates
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O’Malley pulls ahead in March contests
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
2 April 2016, updated 6:10 AM EST



Governor O’Malley has continued to reinforce his lead in the Democratic contests through the March contests. O’Malley has won the vast majority of the big contests in the South and Northeast, while the only big contest Klobuchar was able to take was Illinois. Even though the Democratic field is more united behind O’Malley, he is far from having as commanding of a delegate lead as Murkowski because of the fact that the Democratic Party does not allow winner take all primaries. There is little doubt that he will pass that threshold however, with big contests that he is polling favorably in, such as California and Washington coming up shortly that should make things more definitive. Here is the primary map and current delegate counts as of today below:


Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland: 868 delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 398 delegates
Senator Mark Udall of Colorado: 162 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Governor Deval Patrick: 14 delegates (pledged to O’Malley)
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont: 0 delegates

[Heptahedron]

Justice Kennedy announces retirement, cites health issues
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 April 2016, updated 9:51 AM EST



Longtime Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he will be retiring after 28 years of serivce on the Court. He stated that he has been honored to hold his position for so long, but that he feels that he must reitre now because his wavering health is preventing him from carrying out his position to the best of his ability. Justice Kennedy was appointed by Reagan in 1988, and although he has been generally identified as conservative, he is a frequent swing voter in court cases, making the critical decisions in cases like striking down Proposition 8 and DOMA.

The decisions now turn to President Obama to make an appointment to fill the spot, and his appointment will very likely give the Supreme Court a liberal majority of 5, something that the court has not had in decades. This will also be President Obama's fourth nomination to the Supreme Court, which is far more than most presidents tend to be able to make. Republicans in the Senate are likely to block a number of possible choices that the president might make, and some of the leadership has already stated that they will block a replacement that is "less moderate and more stiff and uncompromisingly liberal." President Obama has not yet given an indication as to what direction he is going to take beyond thanking Justice Kennedy for his service on the court.
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BREAKING: Murkowski becomes projected Republican presidential nominee
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
15 April 2016, updated 10:13 AM EST



The Republican contest was hard fought, but as of today, we can officially project that Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has clinched the Republican nomination for president. The 29 delegates from the primary in Oregon put her comfortably over the top of the required number of 1144 delegates, effectively rendering the primary season over for the Republican Party. Campaign headquarters in Anchorage popped open a bottle of champagne and confetti when she was projected winner in Oregon, and Murkowkski made what can be considered her first general election campaign speech to supporters in Portland. She thanked all of her supporters for making her able to go "from the bottom of the pack to the nominee in a few short months." She emphasized that she will bring the true Republican Party to the table in the election, and the American voters have been disillusioned with the Republican Party because of "insensible extremists that have been running the show" as opposed to more moderate and common sense ideals.

Christie nor Cruz have conceded the race or provided an endorsement of Murkowski, but the endorsements for Murkowski from most major figures in the Republican Party have started to file in, notably President Bush and 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney. Cruz has responded by stating that he thinks the Republican Party chose the wrong candidate, and that "by picking the weak candidate, they show that they do not want to win another election."
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O'Malley wins Democratic nomination with united party support
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
18 April 2016, updated 11:52 AM EST



A big win in Washington and Oregon, followed by an endorsement from Senator Klobuchar, has effectively made Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland the Democratic nominee for president. Klobuchar stated that "it was obvious I was not going to win the nomination, and the sooner we are a united front the better." O'Malley spoke to a crowd in Tampa Bay today, speaking that "America needs a renewed push for the betterment of American society, getting people out of poverty and creating a stronger middle class." He also pushed for a strong pursuit of civil liberties, such as nationwide legalization of gay marriage and a significant stripping of the Patriot Act and its capabilities to maneuver around specific rights. The Democratic Party is absolutely united around their nominee headed into convention, which could spell a tremendous advantage for them.
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- 19 April 2016 -

ANN is prepared to give America a first look in what will very likely be our general election matchup: O'Malley and Murkowski. In preliminary polling, O'Malley holds a lead in the popular vote by 1% and a 10 point lead in the electoral vote. Murkowski is clearly more competitive in the Midwest and Northeast than Romney was, as Maine's 2nd as well as at-large, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all states that are legitimately in play for her that were not for Romney. However, O'Malley appears to be polling well in states along the eastern seaboard, such as critical swing states Virginia and North Carolina. What might critically affect the race are the VP choices that each candidate makes.

O’MALLEY’S OPTIONS:
Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - She is probably one of the more obvious choices, seeing that she was his main competitor in the primaries and she gracefully bowed out to allow him to clinch the nomination earlier than expected. She also has a lot of appeals O’Malley does not have, being slightly more moderate, connecting to rural voters and also to women, plus the fact that she could likely make the state of Minnesota more in the Democratic column.

Senator Mark Udall (D-CO) - This is another widely thought of choice, since he was also an early endorsing primary competitor. He has little political baggage, and has a wide variety of appeals across the west. He could also very likely put Colorado, a critical swing state, in O’Malley’s collum.

Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA) - He is a very strong and popular governor in the state of Massachusetts, and he would reinforce what O’Malley stands for rather well, but he does not necessarily provide any balance or any extra appeal O’Malley does not already have, aside from support of the African-American vote, which is already high.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - Many were disappointed when she decided not to run for the presidency this year, but there is no signs that she has any slowing ambition. She is a very outspoken proponent of progressive ideas, and especially things that affect women, shown through her enormous role behind reducing the number of sexual assault cases in the military. She would likely give him a commanding percent of the female vote, but there are concerns that she could be a Ferraro 2.0, and completely overshadow O’Malley on the campaign trail.

Senator Allison Grimes (D-KY) - She is young, and a rising star in the Senate that shows much ambition. In 2014, she handily defeated the Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the solid red state of Kentucky, and proceeded to become very popular in her home state. She would reinforce O’Malley’s ideas well, but many people are concerned that she does not have enough experience to handle tough issues if push comes to shove.

MURKOWSKI'S OPTIONS:
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) - He is one of the biggest options for VP in the field because of his national presence and his ability to flip the critical swing state of Florida. Murkowski could also mend some broken links with the more conservative elements of her party, but his senate seat is up for election this year, and it would vacate a senate seat that could easily fall to the Democrats, which is something that the Republicans want to avoid.

Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) - The junior senator from Arizona is relatively unknown, but he carries little political baggage and could make a very solid choice. Murkowski worked with him on a number of occasions in the Senate, and he has a very moderate voting record. He is also one of the best at Hispanic outreach in the Republican Party, which could be a tremendous asset for Murkowski.

Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) - Another moderate Senator, this time located in the critical swing state of Ohio. He was notable for being one of the first Republicans in Congress to come out in support for gay marriage, and he enjoys a lot of support in his home state. He could flip Ohio, but his presence could cause social conservatives to stay home, or worse, try to prop up an independent Tea Party ticket.

Fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT) - The former Utah governor has declined to run again this year, but he is far from being out of politics. He was an early endorser of Murkowski and he has appeared on the trail with her. His compassionate conservative image could help shore up the more conservative elements of her party without isolating moderates, and that could be critical to the election.

Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-UT) - She is yet another senator from another swing state, but she has become more of an outspoken voice in the Senate over the past few years and has become popular in her party. She has a lot of “compassionate conservative” elements as well that do not cater to the Tea Party and do not isolate moderates, which is a bonus. A double female ticket for the GOP could do tremendous things for their election chances.

[Heptahedron]

Christie endorses Murkowski, but Cruz still holds back
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
21 April 2016, updated 11:01 AM EST



Senator Ted Cruz made his feelings about Murkowski’s nomination well known in an interview today, stating that “she leads the Republican Party in the wrong direction.” After Murkowski clinched a majority of delegates on April 15, Cruz or Christie reserved their endorsements. Christie gave out his endorsement only yesterday, stating that “he will hold no grudges” and that “the party needs to unite behind the kind of ideas that should lead us. It has been speculated that he threw his support merely to prevent a Cruz challenge, as the governor has made it well known that he prefers Murkowski to Cruz. He also stated that he is not willing to accept the vice presidential nomination.

On the other hand, Cruz has still refused to endorse his party’s supposed nominee. He stated that he has many reservations about her electability, and that she represents a very muddled idea of conservatism. He has called on her to “choose somebody who can display true conservative values” as her vice presidential choice if she wants his support and by extension that of the Tea Party caucus. He did not provide a solid answer when questioned about whether or not an independent Tea Party ticket is a possibility, stating that “the ticket does not represent what we stand for right now.” Murkowski has not made any further comments on her VP choice since this interview.
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Obama nominates Paul Watford to be Kennedy’s successor
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
29 April 2016, updated 2:17 PM EST



President Obama announced that he will be nominating Ninth Circuit judge Paul Watford to fill the seat of the retiring Justice Kennedy. The president announced this at a press conference earlier today at the White House, where he introduced Watford as his nominee. The president stated that he chose him because of  “vigor, yet experience that will allow him to continue Justice Kennedy’s legacy.”  Minority Leader John Cornyn has already stated that Senate Republicans will be blocking his nomination because he did not fit the bill of moderate that they wanted to fill his seat. The Senate will hold an initial vote on confirming Watford’s nomination in a week.
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O’Malley picks Klobuchar as vice presidential nominee
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
3 May 2016, updated 1:46 PM EST



Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Martin O’Malley announced today that he would be nominating former competitor and Senator Amy Klobuchar as his vice presidential nominee. In a rally in Minneapolis, he stated that “there was no better choice than the stronghearted Senator from Minnesota who could connect with Americans better than the rest of us.” She stated that she was “honored to receive the vice presidential nomination, and that she hopes to help take the Democratic Party to victory in November. O’Malley, has received a small boost from this announcement of 1% and Minnesota has flipped from toss up to Democratic lean.

On the other side of the field, Murkowski has been keeping busy trying to repair the image of the Republican Party as a united one, while trying to find a vice presidential nominee that will help to actually unite the party. Some people who have publicly expressed interest in being the VP are Congressman Tim Huelskamp and Governor Bobby Jindal. The only thing that Murkowski has stated is that she will have a short list within two weeks time. The GOP is at a significant disadvantage at the moment due to lack of unity, which the Democratic Party is displaying a significant amount of.

[Heptahedron]

Is Cruz mulling an independent run?
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
3 May 2016, updated1:46 PM EST



Many factions in the Republican Party have been left bitter by Murkowksi's nomination for President. It is almost a surprise that the GOP is not headed to a brokered convention, as Christie and Cruz have not stopped throwing the occasional insult at Murkowksi. Even Cruz has not fully dropped out of the race yet, and a number of people in the conservative wing of his party have pushed him to do something. In a press conference, Cruz stated that if "the ticket does not fully represent the party, then he will be the man to represent those who have been disenfranchised." This puts an enormous amount of pressure on her choice of running-mate, but she has stated that she is not overly concerned. Currently, she is polling above what Romney started out yet, and is gaining an enormous amount of traction with moderates, especially because of the fact that she is the first female nominee of a major party.

If Cruz does decide to make a third party run, then current polling would put a dent into Murkowski at 2.5%, but takes votes from the undecideds, mostly social conservatives that are making the decision to abstain rather than voting for Murkowski. At the moment, Murkowski's polling is only staying afloat because of the extreme amount of publicity they are getting compared to the much more low profile Democrats at this point.
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Threat of filibuster falls through, Watford's nomination approved
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
3 May 2016, updated1:46 PM EST



Today, the Senate has approved now Justice Paul Watford's nomination to the Supreme Court. The vote was on total party lines, with 52-48 voting to approve him. Senator John Thune was going to attempt a filibuster, and in fact he began to, but he was not able to prevent a quorum of Senators from being present. Only 10 Republican senators were absent with all Democrats still present by the time that a vote needed to be held, so Thune's efforts ended up being in vain. Many Republican senators were angry that Justice Kennedy retired and allowed President Obama to nominate an unprecedented fourth seat to the court, the other three being Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Nguyen. Justice Watford stated that he is excited to have this opportunity to serve his nation on the Supreme Court. Even more important is that his presence makes the court shift from a conservative to liberal balance. There is a distinct possibility that the next president may not be able to nominate for even a single seat, since there are rumors that Justice Breyer will retire if Murkowski is elected President this fall.


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BREAKING: Senator Kelly Ayotte chosen as GOP's vice presidential candidate
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
3 May 2016, updated 1:46 PM EST



Presumptive GOP Presidential nominee Lisa Murkowski has finally made her long awaited decision for who will fill the vice presidential slot with Senator Kelly Ayotte from New Hampshire. At a rally in Portland, Maine, Murkowski answered a few questions and a have a speech before introducing Ayotte as her VP choice. There were a select few gasps in the crowd, but, there were mostly excited cheers. In Ayotte's speech, she stated that "a Murkowski administration will still be conservative, but we will have common sense conservatism as opposed to extreme forms that eliminate compromise as an option." This was the only noticeable jab towards the Tea Party faction in her speech, which was overall very well received. Now this GOP ticket will not only make history with a female at the top of the ticket, but a female on both spots. It is also the first time that both major parties' tickets have at least one female. Recent polling puts Murkowski with around 5% more of the women's vote than Romney.

[Heptahedron]

The Republican Party: one big, dysfunctional family with Murkowski as unlikely matriarch
Stanley Coons, Republican Party strategist and ANN political analyst
1 August 2016, updated 3:22 PM EST



(ANN) - It appears that the Republican Party has really pulled off one of the most unlikely stunts last night, and that is to throw themselves back into the realm of electability. The Republican National Convention, which concluded last night in Cincinnati, Ohio was expected to closely resemble a circus, which was something that they did not want. We are not speaking of a political circus like the one kids see on Schoolhouse Rock: this is a circus with people throwing insults at each other that ends up appearing like pure humour to those on the outside. Instead, stirring speeches from Murkowski and Ayotte, as well as some “interesting” words from Senators Cruz and Paul, who are growing to represent two different factions that are growing within the party.

The first night of the convention had speeches from what you could call the up and coming elected officials in the party. Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) and Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) were some notable speeches of the day, strongly in favor of party unity, but the big zinger was the speech from state senator Greg Randall (R-MD), who is a African-American and a Republican elected in a reliably Democratic district in the Baltimore suburbs. His speech sent the message that the Republican Party needs to move into this century, and that Murkowski will help them do that. He is notable for his very strong liberal record on social rights and strong disdain for the death penalty, but fiscal conservatism that was able to get him supported in the strongly Democratic Maryland.The second night consisted of the first, and only ballot, the delegates casted. As a delegate from the state of Pennsylvania, I was very proud to submit my ballot for Murkowski/Ayotte. There was little anticipation for tonight’s speeches, as they consisted of standard lists of office holders. One interesting speech was from the former Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA), who talked about his period of governorship in Louisiana and how he believes that a Murkowski administration could handle today’s issues better than President Obama has or a President O’Malley could.

The third day contained all of the juicy excitement that we had been waiting for. First big speech, and the first one nationally broadcasted was from Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), who was largely the third wheel in a brutal fight for the nomination. In his speech, he stated that he has moved on, and will support Murkowski’s campaign. In concluding his speech, he stated that “I want the Murkowski administration to foster compromise and not be afraid to make the tough decisions that some of the panzees on both sides of the aisle can not.” In a day, the panzee democrat meme has blown up to the proportion of Rubio’s big gulp in 2013 or Romney’s “binder full of women” in 2012, and I do not hesitate to say that the above is the reason my party did not choose him. Next was the long awaited speech by conservative firebrand Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) who stated “we may not be the best of friends, but fighting will get us nowhere, so we must march together. I just hope that she does not run astray of this party’s roots in moral values and values that make up the core of America.” Cruz expressed a degree of grudging acceptance and unconfidence in the Murkowski/Ayotte ticket to truly represent the party and lead like the Tea Party would want a Republican President to.

The keynote speaker, former Governor Brian Sandoval (R-NV), was able to bring the party back together through his keynote address. Again, the theme was progress, but just by undoing some of President Obama’s work. He made a passionate call for Republicans to unite in pushing for true healthcare reform by repealing Obamacare and replacing it with a more free market based system where government encourages competition to keep prices low. However, Ayotte and Murkowski were both very well received in their acceptance speeches. Murkowski stated that she wanted an America that “stayed true to its roots in liberty while also moving forward into a new era of prosperity.” She tried to make a speech that made conservatives, libertarians, and moderates happy. I think that she achieved that, and coupled with the fact that we have a double women ticket that has galvanized moderates and electrified the party (in positive and negative charges), the Democrats are going to have a hard time competing with this pell-mell and yet united force aimed towards victory.
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O’Malley and Klobuchar renew a push for real progressivism at the DNC
Stacey Jones, Democratic Party strategist and ANN political analyst
15 August 2016, updated 4:17 PM EST



(ANN) - Last night, the Democratic National Convention in Phoenix, Arizona concluded, and it was a truly stirring reminder of what the Democratic Party is all about and that action is needed now if America is going to prosper into the future. Sure, this convention was not quite the buzz affair the RNC was, but America needs some straight talking and solid ideas to continue to push this country on the path of progress.

The first speakers worth mentioning emphasized a populist idea that has long since been lost from the heart of this party. Former Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT), and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), although far from identical ideologues, both spoke of the sanctity of the idea of popular sovereignty and the duty to help fellow Americans. Warren spoke of the Republican Party as “that of the rich business interests,” and that only the Democratic Party can truly represent the common man and bring his or her interests to government. Schweitzer stated that “O’Malley has the ideas and leadership and Klobuchar has the straight talking Midwestern attitude that will make sure Congress gets real work done.” He advocated for a simplification of Obamacare and a facilitation of a eventual transition to a full single payer system.

We were also reminded of how important progress has been to America by last night’s keynote speaker, Senator Alison Grimes (D-KY), who defeated former Senator Mitch McConnell in spectacular fashion in 2014.  She spoke about how the South has greatly improved, and were it not for Democrats that pushed for progress in civil rights, such as Kennedy and LBJ, that the South would be a terribly bigoted place. She pushed that progress is important, and that she wants to see a ratification of the ERA and nationwide gay marriage come about within a decade. Many people, including I, see her as a rising star in the party, and she will likely be the one to lead it come some years from now.

And of course, our nominees: O’Malley and Klobuchar made calls to push for action. O’Malley outlined plans to begin a massive transition to renewable energy, to push equality in the eyes of the law, and to deal diplomatically to solve pressing issues with countries who “defy the will of mankind.” Our convention may not have all been glitter and lights, but it had the real substance that will renew a forward push for America that the government has lost.
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- AUGUST 18, 2016 -

Here is a look at a new round of polling on the presidential race between O’Malley and Murkowski, just as we get into the swing of the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. Murkowski has pulled out a very slight lead of two electoral votes with North Carolina now polling for Murkowski, while the popular vote has become deadlocked. Murkowski has looked a lot more popular in Maine and Nevada than any Republican has for years, and Murkowski and Sandoval’s senate race are having mutually helpful coattails in the state. However, O’Malley still retains a slight lead, albeit within the margin of error, in both states. Whatever the case, this election is likely to be very close, as both parties have certain things going for them this election cycle and certain things against. Here is a listing of some of the important Senate races going on for this election cycle. The chances for the Republican Party to retake the Senate are looking fairly dismal at this point, but things could change.

Georgia: Jack Kingston (R) | Jason Carter (D) - Republican Lean
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Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D) | Aaron Schock (R) - Toss Up
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Iowa: Chuck Grassley (R) | Kirsten Running-Marquardt (D) - Toss Up
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Nevada: Harry Reid (D) | Brian Sandoval (R) - Toss Up
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New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R) | Carol Shea-Porter (D) - Toss Up
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North Carolina: Richard Burr (R) | Mike McIntyre (D) - Republican Lean
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Ohio: Rob Portman (R) | Tim Ryan (D) - Toss Up
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Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) | Kathleen Kane (D) - Toss Up
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Wisconsin: Ron Kind (D) | Ron Johnson (R) - Democratic Lean
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[Heptahedron]

Heritage Foundation: the GOP has given up traditional values
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
23 August 2016, updated 8:46 AM EST



Today, the Heritage Foundation under the leadership of former Senator Jim DeMint stated that they find it "unacceptable that the Republicans have sacrificed traditional values just for an opportunity to sway voters." In his addressed, he emphasized the idea that although the rest of the Republican Party has moved on under the banner of unity, they refuse to. According to the overall Heritage Foundation statement, a Murkowski administration would "allow the continued murder of the unborn and pave the way for destruction of support for the traditional family in the party which has supported these ideas for so long." Many social conservatives have opted to sit the presidential election out, but others claim that it is important that they support the lesser of two evils. In response to this statement, Murkowski replied that "it is time that we give focus to the issues that really matter, like fixing our economy and the governemnt's role in it, that affect every American." The GOP ticket has certainly shown that its overall polling has not been affected, as the social conservatives who are opting out are being replaced by moderates who are committing to the Republican ticket.
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Syria holds first free elections since conclusion of civil war
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
28 August 2016, updated 7:44 AM EST



As the elections in the US are quickly approaching, it is notable to look at an election in the country of Syria, which has had their bloody civil war concluded last February through a decisive Turkish invasion that only lasted a week, but managed to put out the light on Assad’s candle once and for all. Turkey was beginning to have to deal with a new influx of refugees, specifically Kurdish ones, that began agitating local  Kurdish populations, and Turkey felt that they had to act to prevent any more destabilization. NATO provided minimal resources, but no other member got heavily involved in Syria. The country was put under a UN guided transitional government as the painstaking process of returning refugees and rebuilding began.

Today marks the end of the transitional government and the beginning of the Republic of Syria. Any citizen over the age of  21 was allowed to vote between five parties, all of whom promise peace and pushing towards a better future for Syria. President Obama has called this “a miraculous transition, but not without its costs.” Secretary of State John Kerry was an observer at the elections, and stated that “the results were very pleasing, and we can all look forward to a better future for Syria and the Middle East.”
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O’Malley: Murkowski cannot be allowed to undo the progress made by Obama
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
2 September 2016, updated 3:48 PM EST



The general election season has really gotten into full swing, with O'Malley and the Demcorats taking their first swings at the Murkowski/Ayotte ticket. In a rally in Pittsburgh today, O'Malley stated that a Murkowski administration will "undo many of the accomplishments of the Obama administration," referencing the Affordable Care Act and the economic recovery that occured under his second term. O'Malley, as a major part of his campaign has stated that he wants to put America on a path towards single payer healthcare, and that Murkowksi will "put us on a regressive track back to where buisiness interests dominate something as critical as healthcare." The Affordable Care Act has been the bane of many in the Republican Party, but a number of Americans are on the system and it has started to become an integral part of the system after it has been refined since the botched rollout in 2013. O'Malley has certainly benefited from the fact that President Obama's approval has improved since hitting a low in early 2014.
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Murkowski makes a big victory in first debate
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
5 September 2016, updated 3:48 PM EST



The first presidential debate was held tonight at Arizona State University, and based on post debate viewer polls Murkowski has won by a fairly significant margin. The debate covered topics of domestic policy. The first questions had to do with taxes, and the elephant in the room, the ACA/Obamacare. O'Malley reinforced the Obama administration's policy of raising taxes on the rich, but cared more to emphasize a tax cut on those making less than $100,000 yearly. Murkowski stated that she would lower all tax rates, but that the upper class taxes would not be cut to the level of the Bush tax cuts. Both candidates also made it clear that the ACA was not an end, and that it was not exactly a desirable middle ground. O'Malley maintained it as a step in the right direction, but it complicates as opposed to simplifies, and he wants to simplify the system by transitioning America to a single-payer healthcare system. Murkowski's rebuttal started with the idea that government's place is not in the economy, and that a healthy competition in the free market is the only thing with which to sustain the economy.

Surprisingly, their answers on social issues did not differ significantly. Both candidates declared that they were in support of same-sex marriage, but O'Malley made a much stronger push, calling for it to be legalized by 2020, while Murkowski stated that it should be legal within a decade's time. They also both stated that they were supportive of a woman's right to have an abortion, even though Murkowski thought that more restrictions on when an abortion can be performed was required. Many people thought that Murkowski's responses were very precise and refreshing, as she forgoes the use political rhetoric that usually surrounds social issues.

[Heptahedron]

Second debate on foreign policy largely a draw
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
28 September 2016, updated 7:27 AM EST



Tonight, the second presidential debate, which was focused largely on foreign policy, was held at Michigan State University. Post viewer polling has been fluctuating significantly, and upon analysis, we cannot determine a certian winner. There were a wide range of questions that involved Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and East Asia. Since the War on Terror and Syrian Civil War officially ended around two years ago, the main issues relating to the Middle East are the ongoing Israeli/Palestinian conflict, sectarian violence in Iraq and the regime in Iran. O'Malley responded to the questions about Israel by stating that there needs to be a compromise and that the US needs to broker a fair two state solution, while Murkowski stated that she was not entirely sure if a two state solution would be possible, and was concerned about Palestine being a beacon for anti-American interests. O'Malley countered by stating that if America helps the Palestinians, then there will not be issues with animosity. Most viewers found O'Malley's response to the question to be better.

An interesting question that appeared towards the end of the debate surrounded the issues with genetically modified crops and the EU banning their trade. Murkowski stated that she would support pushing the EU to accept these crops, but that we must be careful with how aid is distributed to African countries as to not damage their economies. O'Malley stated that investing in Africa is critical, but that the EU's right to decide for themselves should not be violated. Many thought that Murkowski's response was better, which was very likely because O'Malley had to tiptoe around the anti-GMO crowd that makes up a significant part of the liberal base. This debate has brought up more questions than it has answered unfortunately, and that is emphasized by the deadlocked result.
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Vice Presidential debate points to a Klobuchar victory
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 October 2016, updated 3:16 PM EST



The only vice presidential debate of this election season was held tonight on the campus of Boston University. By a fairly slim margin, Senator Klobuchar was seen as tonight's victor against Senator Kelly Ayotte. This debate had two questions from each category: foreign policy, domestic policy, and two random. The first question that got both candidates very passionate was one about what policy they would encourage the Senate to follow in regards to gun control. Klobuchar stressed that she understands the Second Amendment, but that in the modern age, stricter background checks and limits are going to have to be a reality. Ayotte countered with what she stated was an inherent right to defend onself. Where this got heated was when Klobuchar asked Ayotte, as a mother, if she could stand her children being in danger due to guns. Ayotte immediately retreated to the defensive and formulated a number of largely subpar comebacks. One interesting question that came later in the debate, regarding what to do with North Korea, elicited a very similar response from both candidates. They both made a statement that favored diplomatic pressure for the regime to open up, and thought provoking was a bad idea, but Klobuchar emphasized that economic sanctions "damage the regime as well as the North Korean people, who are already starving."
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Simmering controversy over NBC's reaction to comments by Bachman
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
15 October 2016, updated 8:38 AM EST



The conservative portions of the Republican Party have made themselves heard once again yesterday, with comments from former Congresswoman Michelle Bachman (R-MN) where she stated that "the Republican Party needs to be reawakened, and obviously eight years of damaging liberal policy has not done that yet." Her interview was a part of the programming for Meet the Press, and she was the first guest on the show yesterday. Her interview was mostly focused on the place of the Tea Party in the Murkowski campaign. Bachman stated that she was dissapointed with the party's choice and that she feels that a Murowski administration will do the same sort of things that the Obama administration has, and that her changes will not be nearly enough. When asked if she would still encourage Republicans to vote for Murowski, she hesitated before saying "Well, not exactly..." which was immediately followed by a cutoff to commercial. 10 minutes later, it was uncovered that somebody in the control room who was a self described moderate Republican deliberately cut off her comments.
 
This has resulted in a wave of controversy over NBC choosing to retain the controller's position and a discussion about the role free speech. There has also been a campaign called "Boycott for American Values," which has around 30,000 likes on Facebook and is positioned on other social media. Around one quarter of voters who were polled undecided, 2% of all polled, stated that they were social conservatives who are abstaining, and this number has risen over that past few days. Murkowski has reiterated that she intends to pursue conservative fiscal policy as the top priority, but there is no denying that the qualms of the staunch conservatives in the GOP have caused a lot of stress for the Murkowski campaign. It is yet to be seen if she can fill this hole left and more with moderate independents who choose change in leadership.
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Third town hall styled debate shows a passionate and victorious Murkowksi
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
21 October 2016, updated 11:07 AM EST



After an indecisive second presidential debate, Murkowski came back very strong in the third and final presidential debate. This debate was a town hall styled debate where members in the audience could lose questions to the candidates, and a select few questions were chosen from tweets directed towards ANN using hashtag #ANNTownHall2016. Two of the questions were directed towards policy relating to climate change. O'Malley took a very strong environmentalist position and talked about forming policy that would put America on a path to transition to clean energy by 2030, while Murkowski wanted to eliminate foreign oil and focus on a balance of domestic oil, in the form of offshore drilling and the Keystone pipeline, and renewables. She also stated that O'Malley's actions would drive America down into another recession at a time when the economy is booming. A question directed from Twitter addressed what each candidate thinks about affirmative action. Murkowksi stated that she does not like the policy, and thinks that the school needs to focus on merit credentials. She also stated that by making a real jobs program for inner city families, rather than providing welfare, will help them the most. O'Malley stood in firm support of it, stating that he understands inner city minorities are put at a disadvantage from his tenure as Mayor of Baltimore and need help to make higher education fair and avaliable.

Many analysts have stated that she seemed very solid and very no nonsense in her stances and her comebacks were quick and still well thought out. It has been stated by Senator Rob Portman of Ohio that "she will bring a change in attitude that will advocate compromise and push Congress to get things done," which was a kind of attitude that she presented tonight. It is pretty damaging to O'Malley's campaign that Murkowksi can pull such a big victory on the last debate and even through the heckling of the staunch conservatives.
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Tomorrow is Election Night: who will shape America for the rest of the decade?
Chris Bradford, ANN Contributor
7 November 2016, updated 5:00 PM EST



It has been a very long and contentious election season, and it is all over tomorrow night. The election started in earnest last August when the former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. The primary season kicked off with Cruz and Klobuchar victories in Iowa, and then it got more contentious from there. O'Malley made a fairly solid victory after Super Tuesday, where the GOP became an excruciating three way race, with all three trying to represent different wings of the party. Murkowski, much to the chagrin of conservatives, clinched the nomination and the GOP barely missed a brokered convention. The Democrats seemed like the perfect family while the GOP was massively dysfunctional. However, you can't deny how much media coverage the "GOP circus" recieved compared to the Democrats.

Polling points to a distinct possibility that this will be the closest election since 2000, but a repeat of 2000 is the worst case scenario for anybody. There is a distinct possibility that the election could come down to Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, or Florida. Both candidates have noticable areas of unease. O'Malley has to deal with the fact that, although it has improved in the last year, Obama's approval has been fairly low throughout the middle years of his second term, and he also is slightly more liberal than Obama. Murkowski has enormous issues with keeping social conservatives on board with her campaign. Both candidates have tried very hard to woo moderates, but Murkwowksi could have to woo conservatives for her to win. African-Americans are still polling monotonously for O'Malley, but Murkowski is polling higher with Hispanics and women than Romney at his highest point. Below are some final numbers in regards to projected electoral map: Nevada has fallen to poll largely for O'Malley, putting them dead even at 210 each. Please join us tommorow night, starting at 6:00 PM, for coverage of Election Night in America.

[Heptahedron]

Welcome to ANN’s coverage of Election Night in America on this night of  November 8, 2016. It has been a very long divisive season, and it appears that we are in for a very long night, since polls indicate that we will see the closest election since 2000. President Obama has been in offce for nearly eight years, and whoever is elected tonight will tell quite a bit about what America thinks he and the Democratic Party have done. With us tonight are our two distinguished political analysts: Stanley Coons, who falls more in line with the Republican Party, and Stacey Jones, who is involved with the Democratic Party. Coming up very shortly are our first poll closings and projections.
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The first state which we can call tonight is Vermont, which will fall comfortably for O'Malley. Vermont hasn't voted Republican in a presidential elections since Bush Sr. in 1988. The rest of New England will likely be much more interesting tonight as Murkowski has been surprisingly competitive in the usually solid Maine.
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The second state which we are prepared to call is Kentucky, which will fall for Murkowski, as predicted. It is yet to be seen if the state will be won with 60% of the vote like it was for Romney in 2012, however.
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South Carolina is another reliably Republican state which will cast its nine electoral votes for Murkowski. It appears that O'Malley's mid Atlantic appeal did not make its way down this far.
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Indiana will also be called for Murkowski. It is a slight surprise to see Indiana being called this early, but the state has swung significantly to the Republican Party since Obama's narrow victory in 2008, and this is surely reflective of that.
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The state of Georgia is too close to call at the present. Murkowski maintains a lead, but it is fluctuating and we need to wait for more votes to be counted to feel comfortable making a call. Georgia has undergone some big demographic changes that have pushed it further towards the Democratic Party, and the GOP is going to have to watch this state a lot more carefully in the future.
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The state of Virginia is also too close to call. O'Malley currently holds a lead, but Virginia has historically been a close and important state. Murkowski's possibility to actually win in Virginia have been labeled as slim by a number of analysts, but it is simply not clear enough to say anything yet.
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Murkowski currently dominates the electoral vote totals and popular vote counts, but it is still very early, and as we all know, anything could happen. However, Virginia has showed some favorability towards O'Malley throughout the season, and without Virginia, a Republican path to 270 becomes much more challenging. However, Murkowski could very likely make up for this by gains in the Midwest and New England.

Jones: Virginia is looking to be trending the most Democratic it has been in decades. I feel confident that O’Malley will pick it up, and no Virginia puts quite a strain on GOP victory. I know that we will not be seeing as comfortable victories in the Electoral college as President Obama has, but I think the odds are still on our side.

Coons: I wouldn’t underestimate Murkowski. She has a distinct possibility of picking up Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd as well as at-large: Virginia is not a dead end any more. The pre election polling put her at Romney states plus New Hampshire, which I would say is a very favorable map for the Republicans. I think that either person could realistically pull a victory looking forward. It is still early though, I don’t want to speculate too much before we get more info as more polls close.

[Heptahedron]

Welcome back to Election Night in America. It is now 7:00 PM on the East Coast, and there are a number of poll closings which we are prepared to call.


First off is a very easy call, which is Washington D.C. and its three electoral votes for O'Malley. D.C. has historically been a very strong Democratic base.
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Not far from D.C. is the state of West Virginia, which will go very strongly for Murkowski. This state has shifted drastically since its status as a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Also for Murkowski, we can call the state of Alabama and its nine electoral votes. There is a slightly depressed turnout, which was expected from the call from some social conservatives to boycott the election.
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Mississippi will also stay solidly in the Republican column. O’Malley worked hard to try to raise the African-American turnout, but the state did not budge very much.
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Next state for O'Malley will be New York. A big prize at 29 electoral votes, but an expected one.
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We can also call the state of Massachusetts for O'Malley. Massachusetts is another Democratic stronghold and Murkowski's notable popularity in New England will hardly push down his level of victory.
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The state of New Hampshire is too close to call at this time. Over the course of the election season, the state has gradually bent in favor of Murkowski, especially because her running mate, Senator Ayotte, is from New Hampshire.
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New Hampshire's neighbor, Maine, splits its electoral votes by congressional district. O'Malley will win Maine's 1st rather easily, but Maine's 2nd and Maine At-Large is too close to call. Maine is not usually a state up for grabs, but this election has created some interesting circumstances.
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Oklahoma is the next state which we are prepared to call for Murkowski. This has been a reliably Republican state, and also one that is notable for not allowing any third parties on the ballot.
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Maryland, the home state of O’Malley, will give its 10 electoral votes to him by quite a significant margin of the popular vote.
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Delaware will vote quite reliably for the Democratic Party, especially with O’Malley’s home state being it’s neighbor.
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The state of North Carolina remains too close to call at this time. Murkowski has maintained a lead in the state for quite some time, but O’Malley was never very far behind her. This state is more and more becoming a critical swing state.
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New Jersey remains solidly with  the Democratic Party. The state had a possibility to be more in play, but the GOP’s hopes were dashed with the fall of Christie.
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Rhode Island and its four electoral votes will fall reliably in line with O'Malley and the Democrats.
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Illinois is another big gain, but an expected one, at 20 electoral votes. Every election, however, the state seems to be falling more and more to the Republicans, which is a worrying trend for the Democrats.
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Connecticut is yet another relatively expected Democratic gain.
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The final call we can make at this time is Tennessee, which will fall reliably in Murkowski's column.
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The state of Ohio is too close to call. Ohio has been a classic swing state, and which way it falls may end up determining the election.
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Missouri is, rather surprisingly, too close to call at this time. It has polled in favor of Murkowski all season, but the early counts in St.Louis and suburbs have a strong Democratic lean compared to the rest of the state.
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Pennsylvania is another state which is too close to call. It has generally been a strong place for the Democrats, but the Republicans have been making a lot of inroads, and it will be interesting to see if this state will stick to its Democratic leans or not.
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O’Malley now holds a lead in the electoral vote, as well as the popular vote, but a number of states remain too close to call, and those will end up being what are critical. There are some surprises that Missouri has not been called, and nor has Georgia, which questions if the Democrats are gaining the edge in this election.

Coons: Democratic support has been increasing greatly in Georgia and North Carolina, and this is something that the GOP can only stop if they can increase their appeal to minorities, which is something I think Murkowski has been very sucessful in doing. I feel that these states should be called relatively soon for Murkowski, so there is no need to worry too much about early counts.
Jones: The Democrats do have the tide on their side, because the Republicans are gradually losing big states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas because of demographic changes. The Republican party is going to have to make major changes to its image, a part of which is dealing with its significant vocal minority of social conservatives that are turning off voters like minorities.


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Here is an update on current Senate races as of the latest poll closings. No seats have changed hands yet. The Republicans have been excited by an early victory by Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, who defeats challenger Mike McIntyre much easier than previously thought based off of polling. Pennsylvania (Senator Toomey v. Kathleen Kane), Ohio (Senator Portman v. Tim Ryan), Illinois (Lisa Madigan v. Aaron Schock), New Hampshire (Senator Ayotte v. Carol Shea-Porter)  and Georgia (Senator Kingston v. Jason Carter) all remain too close to call. The Republicans certianly have a lot more seats up for grabs than the Democrats, which came about as a result of 2010, which was the last time Class 3 was up for election, being a Republican wave year. This may have helped them then, but it is putting them under a lot of pressure tonight.

[Heptahedron]

Welcome back to ANN's coverage of Election Night in America. It is now 8:00 PM here on the East Coast, and more states in the country's center have closed their polls.


The first state we can call at this time is Arkansas for Murkowski. Much like West Virginia, it has swung significantly to the Republican Party since being a Democratic stronghold in the 1990s.
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Arkansas neighbor, Louisiana, can also be called for Murkowski. The state's governor, Bobby Jindal, was the first major player to endorse Murkowski after dropping out post-Iowa.
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Michigan can now be called for O’Malley. This state has wavered in Democratic support as of late, but it continues to remain strongly in the Democratic column.
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Kansas can now be called for Murkowski and the Republicans. No surprise here.
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Nebraska will also contribute its five electoral votes towards Murkowski.
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South Dakota can be called for Murkowski. Again, these states in the Great Plains are solidly Republican and are easy calls.
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North Dakota will fall in step with its neighbor. The Dakotas very consistently vote together, and this is no exception.
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Texas can be called for Murkowski at this time. A big gain at 38 electoral votes, but a fairly expected one.
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The state of Iowa is too close to call at this time. Both candidates have shown to be competitive in this state and whatever the result, it is going to be very close.
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O'Malley has a big victory in the early call of Minnesota. The home of VP nominee Amy Klobuchar was polling as a swing state, albeit giving O'Malley a minor lead, and it was not expected to be called shortly after poll closings.
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The state of Wisconsin is too close to call. It has generally displayed Democratic leans, but Murkowski has been tremendously competitive in the Midwest.
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Montana can be called for Murkowski. The Democratic Party has a fairly strong base here, but the Republicans have maintained a step ahead of them.
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New Mexico can be called for O’Malley now. This state has moved very significantly to the Democratic column after President Bush’s narrow victory here in 2004.
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Missouri, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This was an expected gain for Murkowski, but O’Malley did perform slightly better than expected here.
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Colorado remains too close to call at this time. This state has been a fairly major swing state for a few decades, and has flipped many times.
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Arizona is also too close to call at this time. This is an expected gain for Murkowski, but the Democratic base has been growing stronger every election and it is likely that it will move into battleground status within a few years.
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The state of Georgia, previously too close to call, can now be called for Murkowski. This is a decent relief to the Murkowski campaign. Much like Arizona, this state has shifting demographics, but it will stick with its Republican leans.
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Florida is too close to call. It is a big state at 29 electoral votes and the closest one last election, so this will be a state to watch.
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Murkowski now holds a solid lead in the Electoral College and popular vote, but both of those have been fluctuating, and it may be fleeting with the solidly Democratic west coast closing relatively soon. Missouri and Georgia are reliefs to the Murkowski campaign, but the early call of Minnesota could point the other way.

Coons: This lead is pretty solid for Murkowski, and I think O’Malley’s boost on the West Coast will be temporary. She has leads in a lot of important states, and the fact that she currently has a lead in Iowa is telling of what the final result will be.
Jones: It is good to see Minnesota called so early, but I think it is one that we would see fall to the Democrats in the end anyways. I really think it is too soon to make a call on who can win, as Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Maine, and Colorado are all still less than a percentage point apart between the two and those states will surely end up deciding the election.

[Heptahedron]

It is now 9:00, and the last polls have closed on the West Coast. We are also prepared to call some states that were previously too close to call. We also have some announcements to make regarding the Senate and House of Representatives. Without further ado, let us continue our coverage.


The state of Hawaii can be called for O'Malley. It will vote for him by over a 70% margin of victory, the second greatest behind District of Columbia.
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Utah can be called fairly easily for Murkowski. It has consistently been the strongest Republican state in the country for the past few elections and tonight will be no exception.
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California can be called for O'Malley. This is a huge gain at 55 electoral votes, but it is a fairly expected one.
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The state of Alaska can fairly easily be called for resident Murkowski. She will win the state with over 60% of the vote, the biggest margin of victory for a Republican since 2004.
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Idaho can be called for Murkowksi. This is another strongly Republican state.
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Washington can now be called for O'Malley. This is a fairly easy call, as Washington is fairly strongly Democratic.
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Washington's neighbor, Oregon, can now be called for O'Malley. Murkowski was speculated early on as being competitive in Oregon, but it was not to be the case.
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Nevada can also be called for O'Malley. It was considered competitive early on, but it shifted towards O'Malley towards the end of the season.
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The state of Arizona can now be called for Murkowski. It will remain in the GOP column as expected, but the state is becoming closer and closer each election cycle and it is going to become critical come next decade.
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The state of North Carolina can now be called for Murkowski. It had shown some Republican leans, but the state remains very competitive for both parties. Murkowksi's margin of victory in the state is greater than Romney's by just under a percent. This is likely a very good sign for her greater election chances.
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New Hampshire, which was also too close to call, can now be called for Murkowksi. This state had shown some Republican leans, but it remained competitive. The choice of Senator Ayotte as running mate likely wrapped up this state, much like Klobuchar did for O'Malley. This puts Murkowski at a greater number of electoral votes than Romney earned in 2012, which was a result predicted by many.
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Maine can now be called, with O'Malley earning the two At-Large electoral votes, but losing the 2nd congressional district to Murkowski. Historically, Maine has been more of a Democratic state, but President Bush came close to winning the 2nd district in 2000. Murkowski has had a decent amount of popularity in New England, more so than the last few Republican candidates. This will be the first time that Maine splits its electoral votes by district. This is one of the first big swing states to really fall, and we are approaching the time where the decision is made.
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Now all polls have closed, and O'Malley has a slim lead of 10 electoral vote, but has ended up slightly behind Murkowski in the popular vote. The result of this election will fall in the hands of Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Since no candidate currently shares a lead in both popular and electoral votes, this election is very likely going to come down to the wire.

Coons: The fact that Maine’s 2nd fell red and that North Carolina will go for Murkowski by a greater margin than it did for Romney are both signs that I think point towards a Republican victory. It is going to be close either way, but it just looks like the Republicans can pull it out this time. She has the rural appeal that I think can wrap up Iowa and Colorado, and Florida and Ohio will naturally swing.
Jones: Of course this is going to be a close election, but O’Malley can still pull this out. He does not need to win as many of the states still up for grabs as Murkowski does. Still of issue is the popular vote, however. We could end up with the Electoral College electing somebody who does not reflect the popular vote, which I would think is going to spell bad things for whoever ends up in the White House come January.


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At this time, we can make a couple important projections:
DEMOCRATS RETAIN MAJORITY IN SENATE
REPUBLICANS RETAIN MAJORITY IN HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

As of poll closings on the West Coast, the Democratic Party has reached a majority of 50 seats in the Senate, with a number of seats still up for grabs. Senators Ayotte and Murkowski will retain their senate seats, but it is yet to be seen what will happen with those pending results of the presidential election. Senators Portman of Ohio and Isakson of Georgia have defeated their Democratic challengers, but democratic challenger Ron Kind defeated incumbent Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, a big pickup for the Democrats. Still vulnerable are Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Kirk of Illinois, Senator Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Senator Grassley of Iowa. Also notable is that Representative David Schweikert will fill the seat of retiring Senator McCain in Arizona.

It is looking like if Senator Reid is defeated, then there will be a significant fight for the position of senate leader. An obvious choice would be Senator Durbin, but Senators Gillibrand, Warner, and Bennet have expressed interest in filling the position of Majority Leader. Whoever fills this seat will be extremely important for whichever administration takes office in January.

[Heptahedron]

I thought that MN being called with only 6% reporting was a good sign for O'Malley. But then I realized maybe you didn't put that much thought into the % reporting in. Did you?


I'm gonna predict a narrow Murkowski win

Oops! It says 9%, but it should be 19%.

[Heptahedron]

I have to say; this is the best timeline I've read on this forum. You are to be commended! I can't wait for the finale!

Wow, thank you! It makes me very happy to know that all of you are enjoying this. Expect an update shortly.

[Heptahedron]

It is now 10:00 PM on the East Coast, and we are about ready to start declaring where the major swing states are going to fall and who will become the next President of the United States. Right now, we have some major projections to make.


The state of Wisconsin will cast its 10 electoral votes for O’Malley. This is not too much of a surprise, as Wisconsin has historically been a Democratic lean, but Murkowski put this state into play. Any state is big at this point in the game.
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The state of Ohio can now be called for Murkowski. She will win by a fairly slim margin in the state, and it is looking like the things that pushed her over the top are slightly better performances than Romney in 2012 with women and Hispanics, as well as in suburban areas. No Republican has won the White House without a victory in Ohio, so this is a huge victory for Murkowski.
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Virginia can now be called for O’Malley. It will be by a slightly smaller margin than Obama in 2012, however, and not as big of a margin of victory that was expected. Virginia is generally considered critical in a Republican victory, so this is a huge gain for O’Malley. However, this is not the only possible path to victory she has tonight.
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Another state that will fall for O’Malley is Pennsylvania. This is not too big of a surprise, as the state has pronounced Democratic leans, but Murkowski was unusually competitive. It is of significant concern to the Democratic party that this state took so long to call, and Pennsylvania could end up being a state that is just as heavily contested as Ohio.
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The final state which we feel comfortable calling at this time is Florida, which will vote narrowly to award its big prize of 29 electoral votes to Murkowski. The fact that Florida is not the last state to be called is a surprise on its own. Murkowski was able to wrap up this state by a much better performance than Romney had in the Tampa Bay area, as well having slightly better numbers among women and Hispanics.
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With a number of critical states called at this point, the last two states remaining up for grabs and the ones that will end up deciding the election are Iowa and Colorado. Both of these states have been usual swing states, and both of these states gave Obama around a 5% margin of victory in 2008 and 2012, but Murkowski has kept neck and neck with O'Malley in both of these states all night long. Last time that Iowa and Colorado voted Republican was for Preisdent Bush's reelection in 2004 against then Senator Kerry. Luckily, a tie in the Electoral College is out of the question, so whoever wins in these states will win the White House.

Coons: This is shaping up to be seriously close. I can't even make a solid prediction as of yet. I think that Murkowski has had a lot stronger connection with rural and Midwestern voters than O'Malley has, which is hopefully a benefit to her. If you think back to the primary season, O'Malley found himself weak in the Midwest and plains regions, where Klobuchar dominated.
Jones: You make a good point about where O'Malleys strengths do and do not lie, but the state of Colorado has a growing urban and suburban population, with a significant portion of this being Hispanic. You simply cannot rely on a more rural Western character to win over states like Colorado anymore: this is what the GOP has been interpreting wrongly and I think it is one of the main reasons why they have been losing elections.