2016 Slovakia General Election, March

[FredLindq]

There is a 5% threshold and 7% threshold for coalitions. I.e. SMK and SDKU and the coalition between OLNo and Nova might be without seats.

I think that it will be very hard to establish an anti-SMER centreright coalition this time. Especially since the far-right SNS will enter parliament.

Thinkable coalitions: SMER+KDH, SMER+SIET or even a dreadful SMER+SNS (liks Meciars HZDS+SNS+ZRS in 1994-1998).

[FredLindq]

My mistake SDKU and SMP are NOT coalitions. However they will probably not get even 5%.

[FredLindq]

A new polls from Phoenix Research published 2016-01-04 gives:
Smer 35.9% and 71 seats (-12 from 2012)
SIEŤ 13.9% and 28 seats (+28 from 2012, new party)
SNS 7.1% and 14 seats (+14 from 2012)
KDH 6,9 % and 14 seats (-2 from 2012)
Most-Híd 6,8% and 13 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 5,7% and 0 seats (-16 from 2012) (7% threshold for coalitions)
SaS 5.0% and 10 seats (-1 from 2012)
SMK-MKP 4.1% and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 2.1% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 12.5% (pretty high figure…)

So the winner would be SIET and SNS.

Thinkable coalitions: SMER+KDH, SMER+SIET or even a dreadful SMER+SNS

For an anti-SMER coalition, OĽaNO-NOVA needs to get the 7%- threshold for coalitions and even the SMK the 5%-threshold for parties. SIEŤ, KDH, Most-Híd, OĽaNO-NOVA, SaS and SMK-MKP could the maybe get the 76 seats needed for an majority. I doubt it and I doubt that they can manage to form a coalition.

[FredLindq]

Another new poll this time by Focus published 2016-01-20 gives:
Smer 37.0% and 67 seats (-16 from 2012)
SIEŤ 13.2% and 24 seats (+24 from 2012, new party)
SNS 7.2% and 13 seats (+13 from 2012)
KDH 7.0 % and 13 seats (-3 from 2012)
Most-Híd 7.0% and 13 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.1% and 11 seats (-5 from 2012)
(It seems like 7% threshold for coalitions is not relevant here...)
SaS 5.1% and 9 seats (-2 from 2012)
SMK-MKP 3.9 % and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 2.4% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 11.1% (Still a pretty high figure…)

SMER 67
Centre-right 70
Extreme right 13

[FredLindq]

“Poll off polls”  from Median, MVK and Focus between 6-16/2

Smer 33,1% and 60 seats (-23 from 2012)
SIEŤ 12,4% and 23 seats (+23 from 2012, new party)
SNS 9,9% and 18 seats (+18 from 2012)
Most-Híd 7.7% and 14 seats (+1  from 2012)
KDH 7.5 % and 14 seats (-2 from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.2% and 11 seats (-5 from 2012)
(It seems like 7% threshold for coalitions is not relevant here...)
SaS 5.4% and 10 seats (-1 from 2012)
SME RODINA 4.7% 0 seats (+/0 2012, new party)
SMK-MKP 3.6 % and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 1,0% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 8,4%

SMER 60
Centre-right 72
Extreme right 18
   

SME RODINA  or “We Are A Family’ is a new party of well-known businessman Boris Kollár. The new name of the party reflects the philosophy that the family is the basic cell of society, Kollár stated. Soon, he will reveal the party's agenda. He thinks his party has a chance to make it to parliament, but refused to predict a more precise result.

[FredLindq]

Tomorrow is the election day in Slovakia!

Last “Poll off polls”  from  AKO, EAC, Phoenix Research, MEDIAN, MVK, Focus and Polis
between 6-18/2

Smer 33,1% and 61 seats (-22 from 2012)
SIEŤ 12,5% and 23 seats (+23 from 2012, new party)
SNS 9,1% and 17 seats (+17 from 2012)
Most-Híd 8.0% and 15 seats (+2  from 2012)
KDH 7.2 % and 13 seats (-3 from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.2% and 11 seats (-5 from 2012)
SaS 5.5% and 10 seats (-1 from 2012)
SME RODINA 4.0% 0 seats (+/0 2012, new party)
SMK-MKP 3.9 % and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 1,2% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 9,4%

SMER 61
Centre-right 72
Extreme right 17

[FredLindq]

The opinion polls were way off. Here is the difference between the Last “Poll off polls”  from  AKO, EAC, Phoenix Research, MEDIAN, MVK, Focus and Polis between 6-18/2 and the results

Smer Last “Poll off polls”   33,1% and 61 seats Results 28.3% 49 Diff. -4.8
SaS 5.5% and 10 seats Results 12.1% 21 Diff. +6.6
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.2% and 11 seats Results 11.0% 19 Diff. +4.8
SNS 9,1% and 17 seats Results 8.6% 15 Diff. -0.5
LS-NS No figures for the last opinion polls Results 8.0% 14  Diff. +8.0
Most-Híd 8.0% and 15 seats Results 6.5% 11 Diff. -0.5
SME RODINA 4.0% 0 seats Results 6.6 % 11 Diff. +2.6
SIEŤ 12,5% and 23 seats Results 5.6% 10 Diff. -6.9
KDH 7.2 % and 13 seats Results 4.9% 0 Diff. -2.3
SMK-MKP 3.9 % and 0 seats Results 4.1% 0 Diff. +0.2
SDKÚ-DS 1,2% and 0 seats Results 0.3% 0 Diff. -0.9


In seats
SMER Last “Poll off polls”  61 Results 49 Diff. -12
Centre-right Last “Poll off polls”  72 Results 61 Diff. -11
Extreme/populistright (SNS, LS-NS and SME) Last “Poll off polls”  17 Results 40 Diff. +23

[FredLindq]

Is this a joke? Hos can Most-Hid do this?!

[FredLindq]

Would not SME-Rodia be a vetter idelogical partner than Most-Hid for Smer?!