Is Dallas County lost for the GOP?

[RedSLC]

The migration of conservative suburban voters from the inner-ring suburbs to the outer ring suburban counties like Collin, Denton, and Rockwall, and more recently, the more exurban counties such as Kaufman and Ellis has been a huge factor.


Dallas County partisan index, 1998-2012
1988 - color=blue]58.4-40.9 Bush, R+5[/color]
1992 - 38.7-35.0 Bush, R+4
1996 - 48.6-48.0 Dole, R+5
2000 - 52.6-44.9 Bush, R+4 (The last election where it still leaned R)
2004 - 50.4-49.0 Bush, EVEN (With D tilt)
2008 - 57.2-41.9 Obama, D+4
2012 - 57.0-41.6 Obama, D+6

Based on this, it appears the trend towards the dems began in the early 2000's, became more evident in 2004, when Bush only won it by a point and a half, and solidified between then and 2008, from the democrats sweeping all countywide elected offices in 2006 to Obama winning it by double digits in 2008.

[RedSLC]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

The second one goes into Tarrant County, though.

[RedSLC]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

The second one goes into Tarrant County, though.

It does, but for the whole area, only two is pretty good for Republican's.

I agree. A "fair" map would have two den districts in Dallas County, and one in Tarrant County. I believe it's hypothetically possible to get three dem districts in Dallas and two in Tarrant , maybe a sixth if you incorporate some area outside those two (like the area around North Texas University in Denton County).

[RedSLC]

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

Fort Bend was reasonably close the past couple of elections, and could conceivably flip in the near future. Williamson and Denton should be prime targets for the next 20 years, too. Hays County, too (Since it contains the college city of San Marcos).