Jim Matheson retiring

[RedSLC]

Wow. Guess the seat is now Love's for the taking. Question to Zioneer and other Utahns: was there any hint of this, and do you think Matheson is gearing up for a future statewide run? Not necessarily soon, he's only in his early 50s.

Biggest surprise of the month. I literally did not see this coming. I guess this means Utah will soon have an all-republican delegation at the federal level.

As for future runs for office, I could see him possibly running for Governor in 2016, since he's "only" 53 at the moment, and he would be the only democrat with a remotely realistic chance of winning. Maybe he decided he wanted some time off from campaigning. Who knows?

[RedSLC]

If Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (a popular centrist) gave UT-04 a run, he could potentially lose to Mia Love with dignity (get a vote percentage of high 40s), but no one else could even come close.

I'm not sure he even lives in the district, but then again, I'm not really sure Matheson lives in the district, either.

[RedSLC]

If Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (a popular centrist) gave UT-04 a run, he could potentially lose to Mia Love with dignity (get a vote percentage of high 40s), but no one else could even come close.

Didn't he lose for Governor by 33 points?

Yeah, but then again, Zioneer didn't exactly say he would win.

And granted, that was in 2010, when turnout favored republicans slightly more. Not that I think it would help him.

[RedSLC]

If Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (a popular centrist) gave UT-04 a run, he could potentially lose to Mia Love with dignity (get a vote percentage of high 40s), but no one else could even come close.

Didn't he lose for Governor by 33 points?

In 2010, and in a statewide election, but yeah. He had good favorables and skated to re-election in the County (which compromises almost half of Matheson's district) easily, though. And I didn't say he would win, just that considering his popularity in Salt Lake, he could make it a decent race.

Half? It makes up 85 percent of the district's population.

Anyway, Corroon lost Salt Lake County by "only" six points in 2010, so I think he would do better than most other recruits (although he would still likely lose).

[RedSLC]

Matheson apparently said "Yes sir" when specifically asked whether he's considering Guv/Senate '16.

His best chance is against Lee in '16. But I don't think he's winning any statewide race. Honestly I think he was better off just running again in his district once more in 2014.

What about the statewide race in '18?

Anyways, Likely R with Corroon, Safe R with anyone else.

I believe that's an open seat (Hatch retiring)? If so, he could go for that as well. But supposedly Lee is not too popular, even for Utah.

Plus for all we know, Lee might decide to turn down running for re-election just so he can go for the Presidency or maybe become the VP candidate for Cruz or Paul. But I wouldn't suggest he runs for Governor. Utah used to have term-limits, but now with that law overturned, Herbert might decide to run again which would leave the race not winnable for Matheson. In my opinion, he's best off trying for Lee's seat whether he steps down or not. The problem with Hatch's open seat in 2018 is that it's a midterm in Utah. Matheson would need a Presidential year for turnout from SLC and especially his district to stand a chance.

In regards to this House seat, Matheson just proved that he's a traitor to Democrats. His moderate voting records I can accept despite large political differences, but blowing off the Democrats and giving Republicans a pickup here is uncalled for. He left us high and dry and unless Scott Matheson runs which I highly, highly doubt, Utah will officially have all Repub. Congressmen/Congresswomen.

I don't know about the governor's race yet. I'll have to look into that. But running for either Senate race would be very difficult. I think now, a democrat would have to get ~65% of the vote in Salt Lake County in order to have a chance. Does anybody see how that lines up?

And yes, Matheson is a traitor to the democrats. But honestly I'm very glad he did this. It really bothered me that a the most Romney state last year by far (73%) had a democrat in its congressional delegation. When a state like Kansas (60%) had all republicans. Utah really deserves to have all republicans, just like Massachusetts deserves to have all democrats.

If Utah voted 73-24 R last year, then by proportional representation, a 3-1 delegation is fair. If anything, this is actually a good reason for Kansas to have a 3-1, rather than a 4-0, delegation, and for Massachusetts to have republicans in its delegation as well...hell, if John Tierney's campaign goes south, you may actually get one.

This is one of the limitations of single-member constituencies - in addition to vulnerabilities from gerrymandering, it can't account for things such as voters from the minority party being distributed across the state, rather than concentrated in specific areas, which is the case with states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Oklahoma, and, to a lesser extent, Kansas. Proportional representation could solve this, but then again, it has limitations of its own.