Likely New PVIs

[eric82oslo]

The Clinton coalition, showing the strongest Democratic trends (changes are approximate): Utah (+32.4%), California (+11.5%), Texas (+10.0%), Arizona (+8.2%), Massachusetts (+7.6%), Washington (+6.0%), Georgia (+5.5%), Virginia (+4.4%)

The Trump coalition: North Dakota (+13.3%), West Virginia (+12.0%), Iowa (+11.9%), Rhode Island (+9.5%), Maine (+9.2%), South Dakota (+8.4%), Ohio (+8.2%), Hawaii (+7.1%), Michigan (+6.4%), Missouri (+6.3%), Indiana (+5.7%)

(The percentages above are based on the numbers presented in the initial post of this thread.)

That's it folks. The West in general, and the big, Southwestern states in particular, trended sharply Democratic in this election. So did the urban, highly-educated, rapidly changing states of Massachusetts, Georgia and Virginia.

The white rustbelt, Midwest and rural northeastern states however, mostly trended Republican, either somewhat or strongly so. So did in particular economically challenging states (of recent upheaval or more long-term trends) like North Dakota (oil bust), West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. Add in Rhode Island, one of the states most hardly hit by the 2008 recession, when the state's unemployment rate reached around 10%, one of the highest of any states. Hawaii however, saw a backlash from their favourite son no longer being on the ticket.

The trends could not have been clearer in this election. Have in mind that 2020 will be a status quo election however, or a Trump referendum if you will, just like the 2012, 2004 and 1996 elections also were, so the states are not expected to change or trend very sharply in the upcoming election, other than underlying long term trends that will be going on no matter what.

Look at remarkable stable state of Florida, which has hardly trended anything at all over the past 16 years, either in the one or the other direction. Truely remarkable. Sharp demographic shifts have been offset there by other factors again and again.

It's really odd to see Massachusetts on the one hand, and its two neighbours, Rhode Island and Maine, trending in such sharply different directions. Especially the strong Massachusetts/Rhode Island divergence is mind-boggling.

[eric82oslo]

2016 trends relative to the nation as a whole:

It seems to be mostly right, but Alaska however trended Democratic.

Four states clearly stand out on the map; Nevada, South Carolina, Massachusetts and Illinois.

If you look closer at the numbers, you will see that Chicago, which trended sharply Democratic in this election, and which arguably gave Clinton her strongest absolute margin of any city, without perhaps Los Angeles in the end, is surrounding itself in a deep blue sea of states all trending sharply Republican, including downstate Illinois. Some of the strongest Republican trends of any states were seen to the east, west, south and north of Chicago, and particularily so to the east with Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and West Virginia as the most dramatic examples.