What share of the Jewish vote will Trump get?

[eric82oslo]

I think around Bush II (2000) levels. Those that care about Israel will likely be concerned about his past comments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (something like treating them both neutrally or something like that) while secular Jews were never going to vote for him in any large numbers to begin with.

I know it is anecdotal evidence (and therefore it is probably not representative), but none of my Jewish friends are voting for Trump (I know plenty of other people that are) and even when I recently visited Israel, the people I talked to about the election were scared sh**tless about a possible Trump presidency. If I had to make a guess, the GOP will be taking a big step backward with Jewish voters compared to Romney and McCain.

Romney was close to the perfect candidate for Jewish voters you ever could get on the Republican side, without the obvious exception that he wasn't Jewish himself. Trump is the perfect anti-thesis to Romney. He is basically everything that Romney wasn't and nothing that Romney was. There's just no way that Trump can ever get a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than Romney got. Especially so since Hillary is far more pro-Israel than Obama has ever been. Obama has always tried to be objective towards the two sides, to give as much support to the Palestinians as to the Israelis. Hillary however has never tried to be objective on the subject. Her heart truely and clearly lies on the side of Israel. That alliance might eventually change one day, as it did with her views on equal rights for LGBTIQ citizens, but until then there's no reason to suspect that she won't get tremendous support from Jews living in the US.

[eric82oslo]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

[eric82oslo]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

Huh?  When did I say that I personally support Trump or Putin?  All of my relatives hate Putin and are supporting Trump despite and not because of his stance on Putin.  For many of them its his biggest negative.  

The ones that are supporting him that don't usually vote Rep (maybe 15-20%) are doing it because they view him as more secular and not hung up on things like abortion/other aspects of social conservatism.

They also love to point out that all three of his adult kids are married to Jews.

He's not hung up about abortion? Excuse me? He just said in the last presidential debate that he would be the most anti-abortion president in the history of the universe, not only in the history of the United States. In fact he attacked Hillary again and again about how inhumane it was of her to so shamelessly be supporting the practise of the extremely conservative Supreme Court of the United States for almost 50 years now. How can you turn such a conservative statement of Hillary Clinton and such an absolutely vile and ridiculous statement of Trump, attacking her for not only supporting basic woman rights, but supporting a now quite ancient practise with the United States in general and in the justice system specifically?

[eric82oslo]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

Huh?  When did I say that I personally support Trump or Putin?  All of my relatives hate Putin and are supporting Trump despite and not because of his stance on Putin.  For many of them its his biggest negative.  

The ones that are supporting him that don't usually vote Rep (maybe 15-20%) are doing it because they view him as more secular and not hung up on things like abortion/other aspects of social conservatism.

They also love to point out that all three of his adult kids are married to Jews.

He's not hung up about abortion? Excuse me? He just said in the last presidential debate that he would be the most anti-abortion president in the history of the universe, not only in the history of the United States. In fact he attacked Hillary again and again about how inhumane it was of her to so shamelessly be supporting the practise of the extremely conservative Supreme Court of the United States for almost 50 years now. How can you turn such a conservative statement of Hillary Clinton and such an absolutely vile and ridiculous statement of Trump, attacking her for not only supporting basic woman rights, but supporting a now quite ancient practise with the United States in general and in the justice system specifically?

They view Trump as pandering to the social cons on the issue but not actually caring about it much himself.  Contrast his defence of pro life views to Mike Pence's.  Trump almost immediately, as I remember, switched to talking about partial birth abortion which is more objectionable to most and gave examples (not necessarily representative of the practice) about how horrible it is.  He was clearly uncomfortable with and not well versed in pro-life talking points throughout the campaign.  Pence, on the other hand, literally spent 15 minutes passionately regurgitating anti-abortion talking points during his debate.  Big difference between a true evangelical social con and Trump, it shines through.

My mum was totally shocked by the crude words coming from Trump's mouth. I think she was truely appalled by how he was visualizing abortion doctors literally wripping the babies out of the mother's womb in the last few seconds/minutes/hours or days before birth. The words Trump used was so beyond normal decency that some measures should be taken towards him. Maybe place him in some asylum of some kind? His mind is so f*ed up that at this point it's very hard to assess whether he can fully recover at any point even if he fully complies with the expertice in every step of the way.