Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?
I went through the polls-only model state-by-state (tedious, but I couldn't find all the data in one place) and here are the current forecasts for Johnson percentage in each state.
1 NM 18.3
2 AK 14.6
3 UT 14.2
4 MT 13.9
5 SD 13.7
6 WY 12.8
7 ND 12.3
8 CO 11.8
9 NE 11.5
44 ID 6.5
44 NJ 6.5
44 TN 6.5
47 HI 6.0
48 AL 5.9
48 DC 5.9
50 CA 5.5
51 MS 3.8
The Idaho number is wrong, especially now after Survey Monkey found 19% of their Idaho voters supporting Johnson. 538 has Idaho's polling average for Johnson to be 14.5% and their projected vote share at 12.8%, which would put Idaho as shared 6th on the list with Wyoming, instead of the 44th place it finds itself on above.
