Is the Democratic Party doomed (long term)

[eric82oslo]

Now, look at the GOP. Right now, they're where they were in 1964. Divided, tugged far to the right, too far to win. But, they do have some moderate voices who might emerge in 2020 as potential big names like Rubio and Jindal, for instance. They have a lot of young minds and voices for Conservatism as well.

Do you really call Jindal a moderate of all things? He is one of the most far right there is. Economically, he's the most far right by a long mile of any of the 23 presidential candidates who have been running this year (though Rand Paul is pretty far right there as well, especially on taxes). Socially, he's also one of the most far right of all the candidates (though not quite as far right as Huckabee). Cruz is more of an obstructionist (more than he is far right) who doesn't really care about policy like most other candidates, but mostly/only to secure that there will be no progress what so ever for the Democratic agenda. Thus, for me personally, candidates like Jindal and Huckabee (and Brownback in Kansas) are in many ways more far right than even Ted Cruz.

[eric82oslo]

Prediction: By 2028, the young vote is Republican and the Democrats rely on old voters' higher turnout.

So young voters will suddenly become socially intolerant and extreme, stop caring about income inequality and free higher education, and suddenly become 80% white again? Hmmm, something just doesn't match up there.

[eric82oslo]

I'd be curious to see actual polls, but my anecdotal experience has given me the impression that older millennials (let's say 25 and up now) are much more loyal to Democrats than younger ones (let's say under 22?), who definitely seem to be more split.

I wouldn't say that this bit in particular is anecdotal - those who came of age during the Bush years and very early Obama years are far more Democratic leaning than those who came of age after, say, 2011/12.

And you know why the reason for that is? Ignorance. These young voters who know next to nothing about politics, only know that they don't like the political situation in the US currently, and give Obama most of the blame for him. However, they know NeXT to nothing at all about all of the atrocities from the Bush years of government. That's why they're still not giving Republicans the hard, cold shoulder that they deserve. YET. That's most definitely gonna chance once they learn more though. It might happen before the 2016 election already, although they might need a few more years in order to get to grips with all of the facts and details. However, the Bernie presence is changing the dynamics of this race already, and probably will make sure that the 18-24 age group will be at least as Democratic as any other age group in the end.