What's the probability that the GOP pres. nominee is not Bush, Rubio, or Walker?

[eric82oslo]

I'd consider the probabilities of each candidates right now to be something like this (the lowest percentage being their normal potential and the highest being their best case scenario):

Jeb Bush: 55-60%
Marco Rubio: 10-20%
Rand Paul: 10-20%
Donald Trump: 5-10%
Mike Huckabee: 3-5%
Scott Walker: 3-5%
John Kasich: 3-5%
Bobby Jindal: 1-3%
Lindsey Graham: 1-2%
Rick Perry: About 1%
Ben Carson: About 1%
Carly Fiorina: About 1%
Ted Cruz: 1% or less
George Pataki: Probably less than 1%
Peter King: Less than 1%
Rick Santorum: Less than 1%
Everyone else: Less than 1%

Chris Christie: Have a feeling he won't run, but if he does, I would say between 5-25% because of his unique personality (which might overcome his myriad of closeted skeletons)

Mitt Romney: If he runs as a last minute option, I would say his chances would probably be between 20-40%


So to answer you initial question Mr. Morden: Probably a 68-70% chance right now among those three, but potentially higher.

[eric82oslo]

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

[eric82oslo]

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

And regarding your percentages, I think you have it wrong. Sadly, Rand probably won't expand beyond his conservatarian base. Walker is well ahead of him, Kasich, and especially Trump. And in no way whatsoever is Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, and I'd say Trump as well ahead of Cruz. Yes, everyone seems to hate him--except conservatives, He has appeal to the entire spectrum, from Tea Partiers to social conservatives. And, like Jeb, he's smarter than Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

If Cruz really was so popular, he would be polling more than 4% in national primary polls right now no? After all he has near universal name recognition. Due to his government shutdown, I wouldn't be surprised if he's more well-known than Jeb actually. It just seems like 90% of Republicans really can't stand him much.