2016 Republican Nomination Poll - November 2014

[eric82oslo]

I think the most likely scenario now is that the primary season will turn into a three way race in the end between a mainstream Republican (Romney seems by far the strongest option at the moment), a libertarian (obviously Rand Paul is the only one to fit here) and a staunchly conservative tea partier (Ted Cruz seems like the obvious choice, although he could get seriously stiff competition from guys like Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and possibly even a resurrected Santorum and/or Rick Perry). So, I'd say it will come down to a fight between Romney, Rand Paul and Cruz, of which Cruz would be the one having to say the first adios due to his lackluster general election standing and his almost non-existance in big, moderate states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and so on. In the end, Romney will appear as a much less controversial choice than Rand Paul among the conservative primary electorate, so he will come out of the two horse fight by a win of anywhere between 55-45 and 65-35 in his favour. In the end, it won't matter too much though, as Romney almost certainly will pick Rand Paul as his running mate, close to the only possible option Romney will have to expand his appeal to other demographics which he brilliantly turned off in 2012.

[eric82oslo]

Romney is not running...

Because his wife is saying so? I thought he made his own decisions. Just like Jeb's mother is not gonna persuade him not to run. Besides, Ann hasn't been as unequivocal as people and the media claim. From one interview I saw of her, she was pretty nuanced actually. But that of course doesn't make newspaper headlines, as it isn't sensational enough.