Could Texas' turnout surpass California's/New York's in 2016?

[eric82oslo]

Let's say that Hillary keeps her current edge on her Republican opponents all the way up to election day 2016, meaning that Hillary might win the election in the end with somewhere along a 10% margin, possibly more. That would mean that Texas would almost certainly face a presidential competitiveness it hasn't seen since 1996, when Bob Dole managed to beat Clinton by 4.9% margin (Bush senior only managed a 3.5% edge in 1992). Texas could then, in 2016, see a Republican margin of just 5-6%, perhaps as little as 2-3% (in the scenario of a substantially elevated minority turnout coupled with a Hillary landslide). Now, needless to say, in a Hillary landslide of a 10-12% margin, über-Democratic states like California and New York (her adopted home state) wouldn't be the slightest interesting for political pundits, and as a result, turnout there could potentially plummet even further. Our best current estimates is that Hillary would, in a national landslide, easily win both states with at least a 28-30% margin (knowing how rapidly especially California is turning blue).

Knowing that Texas could be within a 5-6% range of a Hillary upset, while the two biggest Democratic states California and New York at best would be 25-28% away from a Hillary loss in a national landslide for her, do you think it's reasonable to assume that Texas turnout for once (and for the very first time in ages) could actually result in being higher than both California and New York, simultaneously?

[eric82oslo]

When it comes to turnout, TX will continue to have one of the lowest in the US - because Dems and the Hillary campaign won't invest any money in the state.

Which actually makes sense. I know it seems silly to say this, given how much money in involved in politics, but there is only so much money you have and Texas would be a waste of money. You would have chance at better results spending it in places like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

But if Hillary is already winning the national vote With 10%, she will have plenty enough of opportunities to og a little crazy and spend a little silly.