Guessing the tipping point of 2016

[eric82oslo]

As of early 2016 poll results - and all of its 124 polls it's based on - it seems the most likely right now that Michigan will turn out to be the ultimate tipping point state of 2016. However, it's extremely close among the top battleground states at the moment, and a few important states have yet to be polled even once, including Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and Washington.

This is how close, on average, each state is from being the ultimate tipping point state based on polling so far out this season:

Michigan: Current tipping point state
Wisconsin: 0.3%
Minnesota: 1.2%
Pennsylvania: 1.3%
Ohio: 1.4%
Virginia: 1.6%
Iowa: 2.2%
Florida: 2.6%
New Hampshire: 2.7%
Maine: 3.2%
North Carolina: 3.9%
New Jersey: 5.7%
Arizona: 5.8%
Georgia: 6.8%
Oregon: 7.2%
Arkansas: 7.8%
Colorado: 8.3%
Kentucky: 8.8%
New Mexico: 9.2%
Louisiana: 9.8%
Nevada: No polling yet
Missouri: No polling yet
Indiana: No polling yet
Washington: No polling yet

So which state do you think is the most likely one to turn into the ultimate tipping pointer come autumn of 2016? You can vote for up to 5 states.

[eric82oslo]

What do you mean "vote for up to 5 options"?  Do you want us to vote for just the most likely, or the 5 most likely?  What is the specific being asked?

I expect it to be hard to just chose one, as it's almost impossible to say this far out which one it will be. Just like in 2012 when there were basically two tipping point states; Colorado and Pennsylvania. The difference between them was 0.02% I think.

Sorry for the poll question title. It should be 2016 and not 2015 of course.

[eric82oslo]

What is a tipping point state?

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

Was Colorado in 2012 and 2008. Ohio in 2004. Florida in 2000.

Here's the entire list btw: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176237.0

[eric82oslo]

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

You mean on election night?

If not on election night, on which night would you be thinking? The week before election night? The week after? You're making me a bit confused. So many questions, and not even one of them have ever passed my mind.

[eric82oslo]

The state that tips the election in one party's/candidate's favour.

You mean on election night?

If not on election night, on which night would you be thinking? The week before election night? The week after? You're making me a bit confused. So many questions, and not even one of them have ever passed my mind.

You could also list all the states, ordered by their results.
Than you add up the EV, beginning with the most Democratic or Republican state, respectively.
The state that that tips the election in one party's favor could also be called "tipping point state".

That's basically what I mean With tipping point state. Is there any other definition? I don't think so.

[eric82oslo]

With today's 10th poll from Iowa, here's an update.

This is how close, on average, each state is from being the ultimate tipping point state based on all polling (averages) so far out this season:

Michigan: Current tipping point state
Wisconsin: 0.3%
Iowa: 1%
Minnesota: 1.2%
Pennsylvania: 1.3%
Ohio: 1.4%
Virginia: 1.6%
Florida: 2.6%
New Hampshire: 2.7%
Maine: 3.2%
North Carolina: 3.9%
New Jersey: 5.7%
Arizona: 5.8%
Georgia: 6.8%
Oregon: 7.2%
Arkansas: 7.8%
Colorado: 8.3%
Kentucky: 8.8%
New Mexico: 9.2%
Louisiana: 9.8%
Nevada: No polling yet
Missouri: No polling yet
Indiana: No polling yet
Washington: No polling yet