SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[eric82oslo]

At this point, I think lending votes to get FI over the threshold might actually be the best strategy for the left. Risky, but worth the try.

Definitely. F! has been polling at around 3.3 to 4% on a few polls lately, including the latest one released today by United Minds, which saw the red green parties increase their lead somewhat over the Alliance.

[eric82oslo]

According to the Aftonbladet election test, I'm politically almost exactly where Miljøpartiet is. [On the SVT test, I got F! though - I generally liked SVT's questions much more] Surprisingly, Sosialdemokraterna comes 2nd closest. Then F!, Vänsterpartiet - which both basically have the same views it seems. Unsurprisingly, I'm furthest away from SD, then Kristdemokraterna.

They also scored me up with points for each party. It turned out like this:

1) 17 points for Miljøpartiet, F! & Vänsterpartiet
4) 13 points for Folkpartiet & Sossarna
6) 11 Points for Centerpartiet
7) 9 points for Moderaterna
8 ) 7 points for Kristdemokraterna
9) 5 points for Sverigedemokraterna

If we are to believe the Aftonbladet scale, we can group the Swedish political parties into four distinct groups, who all are pretty far away from each other:

1) F! & Vänsterpartiet (progressive left)
2) Folkpartiet, Moderaterna, Centerpartiet & Kristdemokraterna (right, but neither progressive nor conservative - only KD is somewhat conservative, Centerpartiet the least conservative)
3) Miljøpartiet & Sossarna (progressive center, though Miljøpartiet is more progressive)
4) Sverigedemokraterna (center, yet extremely conservative)

[eric82oslo]

My FINAL prediction:

29.3% S
  8.9% MP
  6.3% V
  4.1% FI

48.6% Red-Greens-Left

21.4% M
  6.4% FP
  6.3% C
  5.3% KD

39.4% Alliance

10.9% SD
  1.1% Others

Turnout: 81.5% (-3.1%)

[eric82oslo]

I won't make a prediction, for fear of being disappointed. Let's just say I'll consider it a success if FI gets above the threshold and the four left-wing parties together have a majority.

Miljøpartiet and FI did much better than anyone expected at the EU election, so I wouldn't been surprised if they outdo expectations this time again. Although since the turnout will be much higher, the magnitude won't be that big. Also, they will mostly steal votes for S and V, which means that their percentage will probably be somewhat lower than most polls are showing. Moderaterna did a terrible EU election, perhaps they will do worse than expected this time around as well. The only party to have a massive increase (with about 2%) during the election cycle has been the Centerpartiet, so don't be surprised if they will do really well. I guess the reason for this is because they have one of the few leaders with actual charisma. KD has also increased during the last month, but less so (more like 1% in total).

[eric82oslo]

At which hour polls close and at which hour shall we have a good idea of the result?

They close at 20 central European time and Swedish exit polls are normally excellent, so right away (which is actually boring).

I guess you're right. Norwegian exit polls have been all over the place during the last few elections. Often giving a party 2-3% more or less than they actually end up getting, which with the magnitude of exit poll respondents (something like 5000 I guess) is quite an impressive error.

[eric82oslo]

Does this mean we still get the national exit poll at 20:00 or will this be postponed too ?

It won't be postponed.

[eric82oslo]

Turnout is so huge that they need to extend voting time by 1 hour and a half? Does that mean it's going to be near 90%?

Well, it's only in one polling station, which is said to be the largest election site in all of Europe. So that probably explains the long queues.