KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

[eric82oslo]

McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

He's even less sympathetic than Boehner though, and that is quite an incredible feat in itself. At least Boehner cries everytime he thinks of himself.

[eric82oslo]

If Bevin's candidacy is as good as his speech, a victory over McConnell in the primary probably makes it more likely the Republicans keep this seat.

Absolutely. He has tons of charisma. And he's half of Mitch's age.

[eric82oslo]

So how well does everyone see Bevin doing? My guess is 34-37%.

He'll come much closer to winning the primary than the polls show, but he won't win it.

I agree. My guess is 45-49%. Which would be a dream situation for Allison.

[eric82oslo]

I don't see why people are writing Grimes off.  I mean, she's doing about as well as Braley and Udall are on RCP. 

And she's raised 15 million dollars in private donations - more than any other candidate this season! McConnell included, who's just raised 12.