In presidential elections going all the way back to 1980, no other state has even come remotely close to the stability which the state of Ohio has possessed. At second place comes Michigan, having produced less than half of Ohio's remarkable stability. What can the reason be for this incredible stability over such an extensive period of time, encompassing no less than 9 elections? Within this time frame, Ohio has always been within 4.1% of the national popular vote, usually on the Republican side. Only once, in 2004, did Ohio vote slightly more Democratic than the popular vote.
Here's an illustration of the long term stability (1980-2012) of all 50 states + D.C (the darker the color, the less stable):
And here are the actual raw numbers for each state, showing the difference between the Republican and Democratic extremes in each state:
1. Ohio: 4.38% (by far the most stable)
2. Michigan: 9.97%
3. Pennsylvania: 10.19%
4. Wisconsin: 10.25%
5. Indiana: 12.45%
6. Virginia: 12.78%
7. Oregon: 12.83%
8. Washington: 13.61%
9. Florida: 14.1%
10. Colorado: 15.94%
11. Illinois: 16.06%
12. Rhode Island: 16.1%
13. Maine: 16.17%
14. New Mexico: 16.3%
15. Arizona: 16.32%
16. Minnesota: 16.52%
17. Alaska: 16.74%
18. Maryland: 17.04%
19. New York: 17.39%
20. Nebraska: 17.53%
21. Texas: 17.72%
22. Missouri: 17.83%
23. Massachusetts: 18.03%
24. Connecticut: 20.63%
25. Iowa: 20.91%
26. New Jersey: 21.22% (median)
27. North Carolina: 21.7%
28. Idaho: 21.71%
29. Delaware: 22.4%
30. Washington D.C.: 22.55%
31. North Dakota: 22.9%
32. New Hampshire: 23.48%
33. South Dakota: 24.64%
34. South Carolina: 24.67%
35. California: 26.3%
36. Montana: 27.45%
37. Mississippi: 28.86%
38. Oklahoma: 29.64%
39. Louisiana: 30.19%
40. Utah: 30.31%
41. Vermont: 30.63%
42. Nevada: 31.12%
43. Kansas: 32.23%
44. Hawaii: 33.01%
45. Wyoming: 33.52%
46. Tennessee: 33.71%
47. Kentucky: 34.83%
48. Alabama: 37.29%
49. Georgia: 38.69%
50. Arkansas: 39.71%
51. West Virginia: 40.87% (least stable)
Notice that the top 5 most stable states are all bordering states surrounding the Great Lakes/Rust Belt industrial area, while the bottom 6 states are all southern/Appalachian states.
4 of the 5 most populous states are all (slightly) more stable than the national average, while the fifth and biggest one - California - has been a lot less stable than the median state.
Thoughts?
