Texas feeling blue or seeing red?

[President Tyrion]

In what year, if at all, do you believe Texas will shift from the Republicans to the Democrats?

[President Tyrion]

Who knows, however if it does go blue in the future (atlas red) then it will because the urban centers took more control over the state than suburban and rural vote. Tarrant County has been a great bellwether county in the state for years, it will be the county to watch if the states trends democratic.

Urban counties have swung democratic, while rural counties have swung republican, this is why the state is keeping still, however if urban population trends/swings democratic while rural vote stays the same, you'll see a big difference, and if that continues, it could be on its path to a leaning R/Battleground State. The gubernatorial/senatorial election in 2014 and the presidential election in 2016 are important to watch in order to see which way Texas will go in the future, whether it will stay the same, trend democratic, or trend republican (yes it's possible, democrats).

However senate and gubernatorial races don't always reflect a state's conservatism/liberalism, so we'll really have to wait until 2016 to see what the state brings us, and we can predict from there. Right now it's just too early.

Do you have an opinion, going forward? You seem to think 2016 won't be the year it switched over. Let's extrapolate a bit (not scientific, but whatever). Do you think it goes from R/Battleground in 2016, to a pure battleground in 2020, to a 2024 Dem/Battleground? Or is the evolution slower/faster?

[President Tyrion]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

Texan Hispanics already vote for Republicans at the highest rate. Not only do you think that's sustainable, with current Republican immigration policy the way that it is, but you think Republicans will make gains?

[President Tyrion]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

Texan Hispanics already vote for Republicans at the highest rate. Not only do you think that's sustainable, with current Republican immigration policy the way that it is, but you think Republicans will make gains?

Texas Hispanics are extremely young, so it's silly to expect that Republicans will make any gains with them at all. Only the money machine could potentially do that job and even that won't be cheap. There's just no way Hispanic women in Texas will go Republican. According to reports, male Texas Republican politicians are the most immature and sexist in the US. The few congressional women in Austin, even the Republican women, are really upset about them.

Agreed on the youth. Plus, the money train is a bit of a misleading fact, as the Democrats are obviously capable of spending, too. No amount of spending will change Republican policy, however, and that frankly will be a turnoff to the Hispanic population.

[President Tyrion]

The first time will be the hardest. Once we get democrats in office statewide, those morons that refuse to consider voting D will realize our policies actually help them.

Well, first of all, that's what she said.

Secondly, I wouldn't be so presumptuous to call an entire bloc of voters "morons" and then assume they will see the light. You can't have it both ways. Either they're morons, or they're capable of acting in what you believe to be rational self interest.