States that bucked the electoral trend

[barfbag]

It's interesting that you're going back a ways. Too often trends are looked at individually which can be deceiving. Analyzing trends by a single election must be done carefully. For example, a significant trend would include a state being within single digits and trending by more than three points. Going back to 2000 doesn't look too surprising. Nice work!

[barfbag]

This is really good analysis (I feel like some of the posts here are so well researched it's a shame you guys aren't getting PhD class credits for this work).

The most interesting state on that list to me is Alaska.  I wonder if anyone with information about that state can venture to guess why that state trended so much... I suppose it's partly because Sarah Palin wasn't on the ticket, but you'd expect a much bigger trend from Arizona in that case.

Alaska's trend is puzzling. Maybe Sarah Palin's celebrity status after being governor hurt Republicans in the state by association of party affiliation?

2000 +23
2004 +23
2008 +28*
2012 +18

Let's say McCain wins 57-41 instead of 59-38 without Palin in 2008. Now we're only looking at a 5 point trend which isn't all that significant for a state as small as Alaska.