Oddly enough with Ron Paul he does better and worse. There's some libertarian states such as NV, CO, and OR that would be a good fit for Ron Paul. However, some of the Republican battleground states wouldn't be as friendly to his lack of social conservatism and centrist foreign policy. NC and MO could've remained in the Obama column. As for IN, I kept it red because Obama didn't have the coalition from Chicago last year that he had before.
Really though? Centrist?
I don't know how I'd describe his foreign policy. It reminds of something that would've succeeded in the 19th century, but not in today's world. He has an ideal foreign policy. If there are two politicians I've modeled my foreign policy after it's him and Jon Huntsman. However, most of my party wouldn't go for it. What this country needs is a moderate Republican and a libertarian leaning Republican on the same ticket. A combination of Huntsman, McCain, Romney, Christie, Ridge running with one of the Pauls would be ideal.