What makes Ohio so [damn] stable (inelastic) in its voting patterns? (user search)
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  What makes Ohio so [damn] stable (inelastic) in its voting patterns? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What makes Ohio so [damn] stable (inelastic) in its voting patterns?  (Read 2606 times)
barfbag
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Posts: 4,611
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Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

« on: August 01, 2013, 10:43:57 PM »

It sounds very simplistic while at the same time it's complex. Ohio has everything. In the northeastern part of the state there are unions and minorities who make up a significant portion of the population. A lot of labor jobs have gone overseas in recent decades. This makes for a very reliable Democratic region from Toledo to Youngstown going along the northern and eastern borders of the Buckeye State. We're talking Vermont numbers. Central Ohio is very rural and flat where farms are very critical to the region's political structure. This makes for a very purple area which will vote based on the nature of the times. I believe Franklin County has never voted for the loser of a Presidential Election? I'd like to see the fine print on it. However, Obama has won by 20+ in each of the last two elections to my knowledge. Southwestern Ohio is very comparable to the south, in particular Appalachia. There are social conservatives and yet more farms to be found so it averages out to a solid Republican region. Basically, you have the northeastern demographics in northeastern Ohio, Midwestern demographics in central Ohio, and southern demographics in southwestern Ohio. A field day is to be had by candidates in what is arguably the political center of our nation.
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barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2013, 07:35:12 PM »

If you check the Atlas, will note Franklin (Columbus) voted for Kerry 2004, Gore 2000 (NPV winner EC loser), both Clintons, but before 1992 only Democrats LBJ 1964, FDR 1936-1940 (but not 1932), both Woodrow Wilson, and every D 1872-1892 (NPV losers in 1872, 1880, 1888, EC loser 1876). Per Burnham Presidential Ballots, D in 1868 (loser Horatio Seymour), 1864 (McClellan), North D 1860 (Douglas), D winners 1856-1852, Whigs 1848 back to 1836. Per Michael Dubin, Clay in 1832, Adams in 1828, Clay plurality in 1824. So, it has voted for losers Kerry, Nixon, Hoover 1932, Dewey 1944-1948, Hancock 1880, Greeley 1872, Seymour 1868, McClellan 1864, Douglas 1860.

  Between 2004 and 2012, the D raw vote in Franklin rose 60,572, including a 2008-2012 increase of 11,664, with the D margin rising from 48,548 to 116,223 to 130,376.  Franklin and the largely unnoticed D 2004-2012 raw vote gains in the 8 suburban Columbus counties are driving the D winning margin in Ohio -- Columbus rocks!  Between 2004 and 2012, D raw number up statewide up 86,542, R down 198,331.

I knew Franklin County was losing Republicans and gaining Democrats but not aware it was so drastic. Ohio will continue to arguably be the most important state on the map for decades to come. What you're showing though is that the county has been 50/50 on winners and losers. I misunderstood it to be a hardcore purple county. Thank you for clarifying!
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