Democratic Trend in Georgia: A Thesis

[barfbag]

Georgia has been 13 points to the right of the popular vote in each of the last two elections. Prior to 2000, it was closer. If anything Georgia is trending to the right. Yes, I know they'll argue about how far to the right it was for the Bush elections, but if you actually look at numbers you'll see that it was 12 and then 14 points to the right of the popular vote. Stop spreading gossip and myths about a state that has been consistently 13 points to the right of the national vote. If all things were equal, GA would be 56-44. Furthermore, when Georgia used to be in the Democratic column, it still voted for the more conservative party. Stop the gossip!

[barfbag]

Georgia has been 13 points to the right of the popular vote in each of the last two elections. Prior to 2000, it was closer. If anything Georgia is trending to the right. Yes, I know they'll argue about how far to the right it was for the Bush elections, but if you actually look at numbers you'll see that it was 12 and then 14 points to the right of the popular vote. Stop spreading gossip and myths about a state that has been consistently 13 points to the right of the national vote. If all things were equal, GA would be 56-44. Furthermore, when Georgia used to be in the Democratic column, it still voted for the more conservative party. Stop the gossip!

LOLOLOLOLOL

Fact: Between 2000 and 2010, the population of Latinos increased by 96%, Asians by 81%, Blacks by 26%, Whites by 6%

Fact: By that measurement, the makeup of new growth over the past decade is as such: Black 41%, Latino 28%, White 21%, Other 10%

Fact: Georgia's white population is declining by 1 point per year (65% in 2000, 55% in 2010)

Fact: Georgia's white electorate is declining at roughly the same rate (78% in 1996, 75% in 2000, 73% in 2004, 64% in 2008, 61% in 2012)

Fact: 90% of the growth in metro Atlanta over the past decade was non-white

Fact: ~89% of non-whites voted for Obama in 2008

Fact: ~86% of non-whites voted for Obama in 2012

Also:

13 points?

In 2008, McCain received 45.6% of the national popular vote, while receiving 52.1% in Georgia. That translate to a Republican lean of 6.5%.

In 2012, Romney received 47.2% of the national popular vote, while receiving 53.1% in Georgia. That translates to a Republican lean of 5.9%.

I definitely agree with part of what you said - Georgia was much more competitive in the 1990s than it was after 2000. But it has not snapped back to the GOP-lean it possessed in the 1980s, and is slowly becoming bluer. I don't think it will pay off for the Dems (assuming a competitive election) until the 2020s, but still - the writing is on the wall.

Maybe he meant margin? Still, it doesn't make sense. It's so sad that conservatives fail to see the writing on the wall time and time again. Just like in 2012 with the whole, "we need a more conservative candidate - the only pathway to victory is if we convince the entire nation to be as antiquated as us!", when the country is running in the opposite direction as fast as it can. By the end of the decade, even reliable conservative bastions like Georgia are going to be off the table for these guys and they don't even realize it! Maybe they should crack open a data-set or two every once in a while.

Here's another fact, Romney won 53-46 and lost 51-47 nationally. That is 11 points away from the popular vote. Another fact would be that Georgia has never really been that red except for the Bush elections when the Republican candidate's base was the evangelical south. As for the Hispanic population increase, it's happening all over the country. Georgia I see alternating back and forth between light red when Republicans win and purplish red when Republicans lose.

[barfbag]

Democrats continue to have a sexual fantasy of winning Georgia.

[barfbag]

Could the black Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed be a rising star in the Democratic party?

In this interview he's discussing gay marriage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2txHXx8yzE

This article on the upcoming senatorial campaign in Georgia names Kasim Reed as the single most popular Democratic politician in Georgia right now: http://cdn.rollcall.com/news/senate_race_a_test_case_for_democrats_in_georgia-225371-1.html?popular=true&cdn_load=true&zkPrintable=1&nopagination=1

Quote: "Johnson listed five specific necessities for Nunn to win and show her state as competitive: • Full engagement from the political operation of Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, the most popular Democrat in the state."

Kasim Reed shouldn't be the face of the Georgia Democratic Party.

The party need people who can build bridges to the rural whites.

In fact, a lot more John Barrow(s) would sure help in statewide elections.

Republicans hold the upper hand in Georgia. It has the likelihood of going blue that Delaware does of going red.

[barfbag]

Me personally, I think the south will become more democratic and the midwest will become more republican.

There's a lot of truth in this if you think race/ethnicity and religiousness. Some of the most religious and whitest of states are in the midwest, like Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois and the Dakotas. On the other hand, states like Alaska and Arizona are hardly (very) religious at all.

If you combined the multicultural makeup of each state with the religiousness of each state, you get this list (to show how close it could be to future elections, look what two states are topping and bottoming the list):

1. Washington D.C. - 30% 7 + 2 = 9
2. Hawaii - 31.4% 11 + 1 = 12
3. Nevada 11 + 6 = 17
4. California - 34.5% 17 + 3 = 20
5. New York - 31.5% 13 + 12 = 25
6. Alaska - 31.3% 10 + 17 = 27
7. Maryland 22 + 7 = 29
8. Arizona - 36.6% 21 + 9 = 30
9. New Jersey - 34.7% 18 + 13 = 31
10. Massachusetts - 26.5% 4 + 28 = 32
11. Connecticut - 30.5% 8 + 24 = 32
12. Washington 8 + 25 = 33
13. Florida - 37.6% 24 + 10 = 34
14. Rhode Island - 29.1% 6 + 29 = 35
15. Oregon - 28.8% 5 + 32 = 37
16. Colorado - 33.5% 15 + 23 = 38
17. Delaware - 35.2% 19 + 20 =39
18. Illinois - 38% 25 + 15 = 40
19. New Mexico - 43.2% 36 + 4 = 40
20. Texas - 47% 41 + 5 = 46
21. Virginia - 41.1% 29 + 18 = 47
22. New Hampshire - 23.4% 2 + 48 = 50
23. Michigan - 36.5% 20 + 30 = 50
24. Vermont - 19.1% 1 + 50 = 51
25. Georgia - 47.9% 43 + 8 = 51

26. Maine - 24.4% 3 + 51 = 54

27. Wyoming - 32.8% 14 + 43 = 57
28. Montana - 34% 16 + 45 = 61
29. Pennsylvania - 39.5% 28 + 33 = 61
30. Wisconsin - 36.7% 22 + 40 = 62
31. Ohio - 38.2% 26 + 36 = 62
32. South Carolina - 51.9% 46 + 16 = 62
33. Louisiana - 53.5% 48 + 14 = 62
34. Mississippi - 58.4% 51 + 11 = 62
35. North Carolina - 49.5% 44 + 19 = 63
36. Oklahoma - 47.6% 42 + 22 = 64
37. Minnesota 26 + 39 = 65
38. Nebraska - 44.2% 37 + 28 = 65
39. Missouri - 42.1% 34 + 35 = 69
40. Kansas - 45.1% 38 + 31 = 69
41. Alabama - 55.7% 49 + 21 = 70
42. Idaho - 41.5% 31 + 41 = 72
43. Indiana - 42.7% 35 + 37 = 72
44. Tennessee - 50.3% 45 + 27 = 72
45. Arkansas - 52.3% 47 + 26 = 73
46. Iowa - 41.3% 30 + 46 = 76
47. North Dakota - 41.6% 32 + 47 = 79
48. West Virginia - 41.9% 33 + 49 = 82
49. South Dakota - 45.6% 40 + 42 = 82
50. Kentucky - 45.4% 39 + 44 = 83
51. Utah - 56% 50 + 34 = 84

(The percentage is the level of very religiousness, the two next numbers are the rank for religiousness & for multiculturalism.)

In italics I've placed future potential pickup states for Democrats and Republicans.

Ranked after likelihood of a pickup, we find...

For Democrats: 1. Alaska, 2. Arizona, 3. Florida, 4. Texas, 5. Virginia, 6. Georgia
For Republicans: 1. Iowa, 2. Minnesota, 3. Wisconsin, 4. Pennsylvania

This ranking is of course solely based on the multicultural makeup and the degree of deep religion in each states. Thus Alaska, Arizona & Florida could potentially become very competitive already in 2016, while for Texas and Georgia one might have to wait until 2020, possibly.

Republicans know what 4 states they should concentrate on. The states of Santorum, Bachmann, Scott Walker and so on.

If these pickups happen it won't be for a very long time. The numbers look about right, but some of us won't ever see it. 2020 is way too soon for Texas to become blue. It's become a haven of relocation for conservatives all over the world.

[barfbag]

I would have to see Georgia in an election where Democrats lose and a white candidate runs as their nominee before I got worried about it becoming blue. Obama was a great candidate for Georgia and he won the elections. Until we see it against an election where the Republicans win and the Democratic nominee is white, then we must also consider the possibility of it being an Indiana 2008 instance.

[barfbag]

Here's a fact. In order for Democrats to win Georgia, they'd have to win nearly 400 EV.

[barfbag]

Here's a fact. In order for Democrats to win Georgia, they'd have to win nearly 400 EV.

1. 400 EV isn't that high when you consider Obama won 365 EVs in 2008 and 332 EVs in 2012.

2. That's not even true if Georgia swings/trends D in 2016. If Georgia trends from say R+5.6 in 2012 to R+2 in 2016, then a Democrat winning 52% nationally in 2016 could carry Georgia. 52% in the 2016 map would probably be in the low to mid-300 EVs like 2008/2012.

edit: Oh wow, I worded #2 wrong. I meant to say if a Democrat performs about 4 points better in Georgia in 2016 compared to 2012, then a Democrat could carry it with 49-50%. Swings like that have happened recently (see NV, CO, VA, NC in 2000-2008). Not to say it's certain to happen, but if any states are due for it in 2016/2020, it's ones like Arizona and Georgia. A trend of D+5.5 is probably too much for one election though.

It's not at all certain to happen so I wouldn't worry about it on either side of the aisle.

[barfbag]

Democrats speak of Republican teasers such as Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Oregon. They must look at themselves though and not fall for their own teasers such as Missouri, Arizona, Montana, Georgia, and without Obama Indiana and North Carolina may be teasers as well.