Final 2012 Predictions

[barfbag]

Alabama 63-37
Alaska 61-37
Arizona 52-47
Arkansas 64-34
California 41-57
Colorado 50-49
Connecticut 48-52
Delaware 42-58
Florida 50-48
Georgia 59-40
Hawaii 35-65
Idaho 65-33
Illinois 41-57
Indiana 54-44
Iowa 53-47
Kansas 60-39
Kentucky 57-41
Louisiana 60-38
Maine 43-57
Maryland 37-62
Massachusetts 42-57
Michigan 46-52
Minnesota 50-50
Mississippi 60-39
Missouri 56-42
Montana 55-44
Nebraska 57-42
Nevada 49-50
New Hampshire 56-43
New Jersey 41-57
New Mexico 43-55
New York 34-64
North Carolina 50-50
North Dakota 58-42
Ohio 50-49
Oklahoma 63-35
Oregon 44-54
Pennsylvania 46-52
Rhode Island 40-60
South Carolina 59-41
South Dakota 54-44
Tennessee 54-44
Texas 54-45
Utah 72-26
Vermont 38-62
Virginia 51-49
Washington 46-53
West Virginia 62-37
Wisconsin 50-50
Wyoming 68-30

Go ahead and discuss.

[barfbag]

I played 2012 conservatively and didn't project a winner in Florida. I wasn't extremely surprised when it went to Obama, though it wasn't a clear call. :

Congratulations, I missed 8 states and you got a perfect pretty much. Either way Florida was close enough to say you picked the right winner.

[barfbag]

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

[barfbag]

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

[barfbag]

What did you all predict the popular vote to be?

[barfbag]

I only missed Florida - was trying to be cautious. Very interested to see where the state goes in 2016.

It will most likely vote for the winning candidate unless the election is extremely close. If it's a toss up it will vote Republican.

[barfbag]

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Um what? Every polling average had Obama consistently ahead in every one of those states except maybe Florida and he had a national lead except for a few weeks after the first debate (but even then he never lost his EV lead).

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

um what again? In 2004 when the last Republican won White Evangelicals made up 23% of the vote and Bush won them 78/21. In 2008 the number was up to 26% and McCain carried them 74/24. In 2012 the number stayed the same at 26% but Romney carried them by same margin as Bush (78/21). So Romney had more White Evangelical votes than either Bush or McCain which is impressive (especially as the white vote was decreasing overall).

Conservative vote share was up so Romney also had more of them then either McCain or Bush.

You seem to live in a counter-factual world.


The surprises for me on election day were that Romney did better in PA and OH than I had thought he would and Obama carried FL (i had guessed Romney would carry it narrowly). But

Obama pulled out of FL with a few weeks to go assuming the state would go to Romney and left VA for a little bit until the last few days before the election. This was a huge sign of Romney having the upper hand. I didn't think it was possible for Obama to win when he didn't have Bush to blame things on.

[barfbag]

barfbag I am curious, where do you get all your 'facts' about tied polls, conservatives and evangelicals not showing up and Obama pulling out of FL? Are you from a mirror universe or something?

Yes