Bellwether states

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Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Colorado
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Iowa
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Minnesota

This is the short list. I wouldn't cross off New Mexico just yet. The Democrats did well there, but they won the elections. Let's see how we can recruit Hispanics and modernize our message. I'd like us to become a big tent party again.

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Several of the major bellwether states of the 20th century included Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, and Delaware.
Delaware lost bellwether status after 2000 and 2004, when it went reliably D. In 2012, its PVI was D+8.
New Mexico arguably lost bellwether status after 2008. It was not considered a swing state at all in 2012.
Missouri narrowly went McCain in 2008, breaking a perfect streak of 48 years. It went for Romney by a considerable margin, and is not considered a major swing state anymore.
Nevada is trending D fast, and many do not consider it to be a major swing state.

Of these five major bellwether states only Ohio is considered to be a true swing state. What other states might possibly stay close to the national center for the next few decades?

I would say Florida is one. It hasn't trended much at all, and sticks close to the national average, with a slight R tilt. With its huge electoral vote count and close to even PVI could it possibly be this century's Missouri? Or is the concept of a bellwether state dying off as the country grows more polarized?

Virginia should have been considered a bellwether in 2008/2012.  It shouldn't anymore because it's trending left hard and soon elections won't be that close except in Republican landslides.

I think Florida will be a good bellwether... collectively, the upper Midwest will also be a good bellwether (Minnesota/Wisconsin in particular). 

Democrats will win the Northeast, West and Southwest.  Republicans will win the South and Great Plains... so the upper-Midwest will decide elections.

I still think Obama over performed there so we won't be able to see it's trends for what they are until 2016.

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Several of the major bellwether states of the 20th century included Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, and Delaware.
Delaware lost bellwether status after 2000 and 2004, when it went reliably D. In 2012, its PVI was D+8.
New Mexico arguably lost bellwether status after 2008. It was not considered a swing state at all in 2012.
Missouri narrowly went McCain in 2008, breaking a perfect streak of 48 years. It went for Romney by a considerable margin, and is not considered a major swing state anymore.
Nevada is trending D fast, and many do not consider it to be a major swing state.

Of these five major bellwether states only Ohio is considered to be a true swing state. What other states might possibly stay close to the national center for the next few decades?

I would say Florida is one. It hasn't trended much at all, and sticks close to the national average, with a slight R tilt. With its huge electoral vote count and close to even PVI could it possibly be this century's Missouri? Or is the concept of a bellwether state dying off as the country grows more polarized?

Virginia should have been considered a bellwether in 2008/2012.  It shouldn't anymore because it's trending left hard and soon elections won't be that close except in Republican landslides.

I think Florida will be a good bellwether... collectively, the upper Midwest will also be a good bellwether (Minnesota/Wisconsin in particular). 

Democrats will win the Northeast, West and Southwest.  Republicans will win the South and Great Plains... so the upper-Midwest will decide elections.

I still think Obama over performed there so we won't be able to see it's trends for what they are until 2016.

It's very easy to "see it's trends for what they are" right now.  Just log on to the US census website.  90% of population growth has been and is projected to continue being in regions that democrats usually win (not just Obama).  More than 50% of the population growth will be in Northern Virginia (even Kerry won this region by a healthy margin).  To say we don't know what the trend is now is ridiculous.  In 20 years 40% of the population of the state will live in Northern Virginia, add Richmond and the college towns to that and you already have a majority of the state population.  Yeah I guess it's possible that Republicans could start doing better in Northern Virginia even as those suburbs get filled with more and more ex-DC people, minorities, and young professionals.  Just like it's possible that Republicans will win NYC in the next Presidential election.

Fact is, for Presidential elections, the GOP is screwed in Virginia.

You're missing what I'm saying. I'm saying we won't have any future data to compare 2012 to until the 2016 election. Obama was a great candidate for Democrats in Virginia with a large black population. The state has been trending, but how much isn't clear until we no longer have Obama on the ticket. If the state trends back or stays the same as it's been for the Obama elections, then we'll know Obama played a huge factor in the trends. If Virginia is something like 55-44 in the next election for the Democratic nominee, then we'll know Obama simply benefited here as a result of the state's trends. No one is arguing that Virginia has been trending to the left. There is no comparison between Virginia and NYC though.