Bold Predictions for the Next Few Cycles

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

2016 - Hillary is elected with 50% of the vote and 303 EVs against Jeb Bush (who wins 48%+ or so), losing only Florida from Obama's map. Ohio and Colorado are plurality wins for HRC, while Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire are just above her national PV percentage. Georgia, while going GOP in the end, puts up major red flags for the Republicans, and Hillary maintains strength North Carolina. Democrats pick up 3 - 6 Senate seats, either narrowly losing or narrowly winning the Senate. Democrats pick up 15 - 25 seats (probably the lower number), but nothing notable.

2018 - GOP picks up 6 - 10 Senate seats, probably doesn't exceed 58 or 59 in total. GOP gains back the 15 - 25 seats in the House. Overall, the House doesn't change much over the 2011 - 2023 period. In the Gubernats, Democrats narrowly gain back some states when incumbents retire, while GOP holds most open seats and incumbents.

Sometime between 2017 and 2019, I expect a small recession to occur. Unemployment probably peaks between 6% and 7.5%, so it's not terrible, but Hilldawg takes the blame. Her signature achievenments are probably immigration reform, further changes to Medicare/Medicaid/SS/SSDI, while otherwise defending Obama's accomploshments on healthcare/foreign policy, and is noted for some environmental legislation when continuing droughts cause political pressure on Congress to act with her. Maybe some incremental tax reforms as well? Steps down after one term.

2020 - Gardner is elected President, running as a "21st Century" Republican with good speaking and debating skills. Dunno about VP. Probably gets 51% - 52% of the PV, and gets over 299 or more EVs. Probably picks off one of the low-hanging states in the Blue Wall (possibly Nevada, Pennsylvania, and/or Wisconsin. Iowa comes along for the ride as well). Senate gains minimal for the GOP, could even remain unchanged or even lose seats. House is unimpressive, just north of 250? Gardner probably survives two terms, might lose Congress in 2022, but probably 2026.