Comparing the percentage Obama and Bush won in each state and seeing who did better in each state
Bush 275
Obama 263
This is stunning seeing that Obama won by a much bigger margin in 2012 then Bush did in 2004
IIRC this is exactly the map the Romney campaign was aiming for (plus NH), specifically because they thought demographics and turnout would either a.) hold at 2008 levels, but groups (especially whites independents) would swing away from Obama and give Romney a narrow victory, b.) demographics would return to 2004 levels and give Romney a big win, or c.) somewhere between the two, giving him a good-sized-but-not-huge win.
