Anyone want to hazard a guess where the (official) unemployment rate will be by January 2017? A little over 4%?
Well, I'd say above 4.5%, because when unemployment begins dropping towards 5%, I'm guessing that the much-lamented "discouraged workers" will enter the labor force again, attracted by jobs and rising wages, and this could cause the rate to hold around 5%. Through every recent economic expansion, it takes a while for unemployment to get through to 5%, as what happened in the mid-1990s, late-1980s, early 1970s, and early-/mid-60s when U3 bounced around in the 5 - 5.6% range before finally dropping below.
Also, when unemployment starts dropping in the low-5% range, the Federal Reserve will probably begin to raise interest rates, and this could cause a soft landing as the economy takes a breather, like what happened in 1995 after the economy did crazy good in 1994.
I'm guessing 5.5% at the high end and 4.5% at the low end if the economy keeps growing between 2% and 3% per year. If forced to pick a percentage, I'd go with 5.2%.