Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96
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« on: April 26, 2009, 10:13:51 PM » |
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If the national environment is good for the GOP (Obama's approval rating is below 50 percent nationally) and the Dems nominate a bad candidate, Toomey will win. But if one of those things fails to happen, he almost certainly loses (he'd only beat a good Dem candidate if Obama has Bush-like approval ratings; if Obama is still popular, he only wins if the Dem is found in bed with a live man or dead woman).
If neither happens, he loses by a pretty decent margin.
I agree he'll probably win the primary, but as Phil said, it's too early to tell for sure.
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