ciuld texas be a supeising 'battleground' in 2012?

[Nym90]

Lubbock is a college town, and Obama did extremely well in college towns (and Kerry had already done quite well in them, so the even further very strong swing was surprising in that regard). The "media market" theory of swings that Al has talked about may explain the outlying areas, though I don't see why it'd apply specifically here since I'm assuming there were no ads run here at all (maybe Lubbock commuters in those outlying areas? Exurban sprawl to a certain extent?).

Obviously step one for Democrats in becoming competitive in Texas is starting to consistently win, and win by significant margins, in Dallas, Harris, and Bexar counties. Step two will be making the counties surrounding each of them at least reasonably competitive (either that, or find a candidate who can get rural Texas back, but Obama ain't the guy for that strategy). Will certainly be interesting to see if the big counties continue to swing Democratic; if this is more than just a fluke it does have long term implications.

If you look at Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina, this is a large part of what allowed Obama to win those states. In the past, Marion county, IN (Indianapolis) was a Republican county or at least no more than a swing area; now it's solidly Democratic (again, will be interesting to see if this is a fluke or a semi-permanent shift, if it's the latter, it's bad news for the GOP). Mecklunburg and Wake Counties in NC and Nova and the Norfolk area in Virginia are likewise largely responsible for Obama wins in those states; if these areas continue to be or even swing further Democratic, Republicans are in big trouble. That's a big if, though.