Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96
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« on: September 22, 2008, 05:24:03 PM » |
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Numbers look reasonable.
Shouldn't be surprising to anyone with an eye to history that Democrats gain strength in Michigan in the fall as opposed to the summer. The "summer vacation" polling problems actually hurt Democrats here, unlike most states. Probably because we're one of the few states that has a lot of well paid well vacationed union Democrats who can actually afford to and have the time to be out of town and not responding to polls.
Not to say Obama doesn't still have demographic problems here; he certainly does. But the recent focus on the economy helps him here more than most states.
Pennsylvania still has me concerned a bit, though it's polled a very consistent narrow Obama edge for a long time.
Otherwise, numbers look pretty reasonable. Too bad they didn't do Colorado, however, as that clearly seems to be the tipping point state at this juncture.
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