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« on: December 19, 2016, 01:45:34 PM » |
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The timing of the calls of the different states depends a lot on where the outstanding votes are and how many absentee/provisional ballots remain to be counted even after all precincts have reported. The networks also use key bellwether precincts that have a long track record of predicting the outcome in that state (it would be fascinating to know which they use).
Over time the networks have gotten a lot more conservative about calling states. In 1980 Reagan was declared the winner at I believe 8:00 Eastern or shortly thereafter. Carter gave his concession speech before the polls had even closed on the West Coast. In 1992 Clinton was called the winner not long after 9:00 Eastern, and I know it was right at 9:00 in 1996.
Then in 2000 we had the debacle of Florida being called for Gore at 7:48 Eastern, twelve minutes before the polls closed in the panhandle. At the time the network policy was that a state could be called so long as at least 75 percent of the polls had closed in the state (after that it was changed to 100 percent). Followed by the retraction, then the call for Bush putting him over the top, then Gore calling Bush to concede, then thousands more votes coming in from Florida and all of a sudden the margin is less than 1,000 votes and Gore calls back to retract his concession and well, you know the rest.
Anyway, my point is that after 2000 things changed a lot.
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