My prediction for a Clinton vs. Trump race

[Nym90]

I apologize for the fomatting of this. The first percentage represents Clinton's percentage of the vote, the second Trump's. I copied and pasted from fivethirtyeight.com's electoral calculator.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

I assumed that Trump will do five points better than Romney among non college educated whites (67%), while Clinton will do five points better than Obama among college educated whites (Trump getting 51%) and Asians/other (Clinton 72%), ten points better among Hispanics/Latinos (81%), and the same with black voters (93%).

Turnout was left at the same levels as their assumptions (that turnout among all groups will be at the same levels as 2012, while adjustments are made to the 2016 electorate to factor in demographic change since 2012). 77% for college educated whites, 57% for non college educated whites, 66% for blacks, 48% for Hispanics/Latinos, and 49% for Asians/other. So overall turnout nationally will be 37.2% college educated white, 33.3% non college educated white, 13.3% black, 10.7% Hispanic/Latino, and 5.5% Asian/Other.



U.S.   
53.1%
45.2%
Ala.   
41.1%
57.8%
Alaska   
43.0%
52.7%
Ariz.      
47.3%
50.9%
Ark.      
38.3%
59.2%
Calif.   
63.3%
34.1%
Colo.   
52.9%
44.7%
Conn.      
59.6%
39.3%
Del.   
59.0%
39.6%
D.C.   
91.4%
6.7%
Fla.   
53.7%
45.4%
Ga.   
48.3%
50.5%
Hawaii   
72.3%
26.1%
Idaho   
33.8%
63.3%
Ill.   
58.5%
39.9%
Ind.   
45.3%
52.8%
Iowa   
50.8%
47.4%
Kan.   
39.6%
58.1%
Ky.   
38.6%
59.6%
La.   
43.5%
54.8%
Maine   
55.3%
42.0%
Md.   
64.7%
33.1%
Mass.   
61.2%
36.9%
Mich.   
54.5%
44.4%
Minn.   
53.0%
44.6%
Miss.   
46.0%
53.1%
Mo.   
45.5%
52.7%
Mont.   
42.9%
54.2%
Neb.   
39.1%
58.7%
Nev.   
55.1%
42.9%
N.H.   
51.8%
46.6%
N.J.   
60.2%
38.7%
N.M.   
58.2%
37.6%
N.Y.   
64.3%
34.4%
N.C.   
50.4%
48.3%
N.D.   
40.2%
56.8%
Ohio   
51.0%
47.4%
Okla.   
35.3%
64.7%
Ore.   
54.2%
42.2%
Pa.   
53.2%
45.3%
R.I.   
62.4%
35.6%
S.C.   
45.9%
52.8%
S.D.   
41.1%
56.6%
Tenn.      
40.4%
58.2%
Texas      
46.7%
51.9%
Utah   
27.4%
70.1%
Vt.   
64.2%
33.4%
Va.   
53.9%
44.6%
Wash.   
57.1%
40.3%
W.Va.   
35.7%
62.2%
Wis.   
52.6%
46.2%
Wyo.   
31.0%
65.5%

[Nym90]

Yeah I agree Utah is one of the quirks due to the Mormon vote being so heavily for Romney. Also Illinois will probably be worse for Clinton since Obama had a home state advantage there, while Massachusetts will likely be better for her due to Romney's home state boost. Hard to say whether Clinton or Trump will get more of a home state advantage in New York or whether they cancel each other out.

[Nym90]

Regarding the turnout numbers, one could make a good case that turnout will be higher for groups such as Latinos or non college educated whites, but any changes are likely to cancel each other out and in any event they don't make much of a difference to the final numbers, nowhere near as much as swings within groups make. Normally we would expect a drop in black turnout and Dem percentage with Obama off the ballot, but I think Trump will drive blacks to the polls at 2012 levels, and that Clinton will do as well with them also, especially given how well Clinton has done with them in the primaries.

[Nym90]

N.H.   
51.8%
46.6%

LOL. With all those women running in 2016 (Hillary Clinton, Climbing Maggie, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Ann Kuster, ...), there's less than zero chance of Trump doing better than Romney in NH. He'll be lucky to break 40% there, especially if he loses by such a big margin nationally.

That one surprised me too. I assume the calculation came from New Hampshire having lots of non college educated whites. It could certainly be argued that those voters here might not swing to Trump as strongly as in other regions.

[Nym90]

Yeah, I think in very white states like Oregon, the swing toward Clinton among college educated whites was balanced by the swing against her among non college educated, so they come out similarly to 2012. Oregon is an inelastic state, though, so it wouldn't surprise me.

[Nym90]

Based on the margins of victory for Clinton in each state, this would be the most plausible Trump victory map, a 273-265 victory without Florida or Virginia:

[Nym90]

Wow, I find it so hard to believe he could win by getting WI and PA instead of Florida.

Me too. I think it would be far easier for him to win Michigan instead of Wisconsin.

The loss of so much more of the hispanic vote is the best explanation for Trump's poor Florida showing, whereas Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have many more non college educated whites. It's certainly possible, though, that Trump alienates Mexicans and other Latinos moreso than Cubans.

Michigan has been more Democratic than Wisconsin for a while, and in particular has more black voters, who I assumed will remain at 2012 levels of Dem voting due to Trump being the GOP nominee.