International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

They're distinguishing between asymptomatic (never shows symptoms) and pre-symptomatic (will later show symptoms). An important distinction.

[Silent Hunter]

Hungary has ended border controls on all its Schengen borders. Slovenia is also allowing Hungarians, Austrians and Slovenes to cross into the country at any point they like; other citizens will still need to use border crossings for the time being.

[Silent Hunter]

He says that should end on 20 June. We shall see.

[Silent Hunter]

https://nypost.com/2020/06/10/burundis-pierre-nkurunziza-may-have-died-from-covid-19/

Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza has died after a suspected bout with the coronavirus — which would make him the first world leader to succumb to the pandemic, according to a report.

The government announced Tuesday that 55-year-old Nkurunziza had died from a heart attack, but opposition sources say the cause of death was COVID-19, according to the Telegraph.

I suppose it's a good thing Burundi will be swearing in a new President in a few weeks, Evariste Ndayishimye...but Nkurunziza is still the first world leader to die from COVID-19 apparently.

For comparison purposes, here is the list of notable "Spanish flu" deaths:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Spanish_flu_cases

That claimed the first PM of independent South Africa and the President-elect of Brazil.

[Silent Hunter]

While much of Europe has fully opened its borders.

[Silent Hunter]

What we are likely to get going forward in many countries over the next few months are "mini-spikes" ie. localised outbreaks often tied to one location. The authorities are getting better at containing them, which is a good thing.

[Silent Hunter]

What is going to contain this more than anything else is good hygiene.

[Silent Hunter]

Yep, these things tend to be reciprocal. The French only imposed their quarantine on the UK after the UK decided to impose one on France. Hopefully that ends soon.

[Silent Hunter]

It's very varied by country or even region; the virus is in decline across most of Europe and Asia, but still very much active in the Americas, including Texas.

[Silent Hunter]

I note that he was swabbed at the airport and tested negative, then tested positive a few days later; it's difficult to know whether he was truly negative on arrival of course.

You've going to get a lot of this over the next few months or even years.

[Silent Hunter]

Regional lockdowns will make more sense going forward. If the fire is on the seventh floor, you don't put the sprinklers on for the second.

[Silent Hunter]

Germany is divided into 16 states, those divided into districts/counties of which there is a total of 402:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Landkreise,_Kreise_und_kreisfreie_St%C3%A4dte_in_Deutschland_2011-09-04.svg

There would be the option just to lock down Gütersloh county or the whole of North-Rhine Westphalia, depending on the situation in the wider area.

[Silent Hunter]

The Rotary Club is a very well known group with a huge international presence; there are two clubs in my London Borough (Havering) alone.

The Austrian wing can be found here:

https://www.rotary.at/

[Silent Hunter]

A routine COVID-19 test at the Wiesenhof meat factory in Wildeshausen (county of Oldenburg, Lower Saxony) resuted in 23 positives out of 50 tested. Now all 1100 employees will be tested.

Be interesting to see how many of them are symptomatic.

[Silent Hunter]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a million deaths overall, like in 1968.

[Silent Hunter]

At a IFR of 0.5% and assuming that 60% of humanity were to get it in some form or another, that would be around 25 million people. In practice, it's likely to be rather less than that considering the relative demographics of various countries, the likelihood of improved treatments being developed and quarantine measures.

Five million might not be out of the question, but it could be spread over a few years.

[Silent Hunter]

We've got a local lock-down ourselves now in the city of Leicester after a spike there.

[Silent Hunter]

Those five countries arguably failed to protect their most vulnerable in care homes and hospitals; this resulted in a lot more deaths. However, on the flip side, you can't die twice and with those people already dead or (possibly) immune, they might be less vulnerable to a second wave.

[Silent Hunter]

Discharging people from hospitals into care homes without Covid-19 tests didn't exactly help and some of the care home industry isn't exactly a paragon of good care.

[Silent Hunter]

Madeira and the Azores are being exempted from the FCO's "do not travel except essential list", but not the quarantine list.

Also, he's using the total cases, not the current level. Portugal's current case rate is close to 50 per 100,000 whereas as the UK's is around 30.

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#1_introduction

[Silent Hunter]

I wear a mask on public transport as mandated and carry one with me when out; for one thing if I start coughing, I'll put it on to avoid alarming people.

Otherwise, they're not exactly comfortable in hot weather.

[Silent Hunter]

T-cells might be more important there.

[Silent Hunter]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

[Silent Hunter]

Germany's current infection rate is still half that of the UK though.

[Silent Hunter]

Germany's current infection rate is still half that of the UK though.

We're maybe a little prone to panicking though.

A lot of people seem to be prone to panicking at the moment.