International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

We seem to be considering something like that - although not a 'stay at home' order - in the UK. It's being dubbed a "circuit breaker".

Unfortunately, a circuit breaker masks other problems with the wiring.

[Silent Hunter]

Also, much as the governments of this world are to blame, there's quite a few idiotic people out there. See how the Bolton spike was caused.

[Silent Hunter]

The economic and social consequences of the first one were brutal. So we need to avoid any more.

[Silent Hunter]

Sorry, I'll clarify.

The lockdown in the UK led to a rise in alcohol abuse and domestic violence, along with delays in cancer treatments. The increases in unemployment will have their own impacts on public health; poor people are generally not healthy people. Elsewhere, we've had 25 years of development progress wiped out and hundreds of millions facing starvation.

We need to take the necessary measures to contain this virus so we don't have to resort to the nuclear option. Because it won't just be people dying from the virus as a result.

[Silent Hunter]

It's the middle-income countries that are getting it the worst. Rich enough to have obesity problems, but too poor to have totally effective healthcare systems.

[Silent Hunter]

While the government has its own considerable share of blame for all this (and that isn't helping with compliance), people do have to fulfil their side of the social contract.

Like most problems in society, it's the minority who cause problems for the rest of us.

Also, if we impose a 10pm curfew on pubs, can we keep it? That will do wonders for our NHS.

[Silent Hunter]

While the government has its own considerable share of blame for all this (and that isn't helping with compliance), people do have to fulfil their side of the social contract.

Like most problems in society, it's the minority who cause problems for the rest of us.

Also, if we impose a 10pm curfew on pubs, can we keep it? That will do wonders for our NHS.

Sure, but as I said you get a minority behaving stupidly in all countries. That doesn't alter the fact some governments have undoubtedly handled this crisis better than our own - not least because their messaging has often been less vague and contradictory.

Indeed. That contradictory messaging is arguably damaging compliance too. If people get told they can't go to each other's houses, but they can go to the pub, then it's something very hard to explain to the public at large.

"Hands, face, space" actually makes some degree of sense. Better than "control the virus".

Also, the "Protect the NHS" message isn't resonating because many of us can just look at the government's own statistics, see that hospital patient numbers are broadly flat, then conclude there isn't a problem.

Thirdly, when do people listen to politicians in general?

[Silent Hunter]

People are going to university, Covid-19 cases are turning in halls and thousands are forced to self-isolate with little planning on how they are going to get food etc.

[Silent Hunter]

It seems that the majority of cases in the UK are among younger people now. Many of whom are not inclined to listen to 50-something adults at the best of times.

[Silent Hunter]

We've got a QR code reader incorporated into our app that allows for an anonymous check-in. Does your app?

[Silent Hunter]

Nope, looks like it was PHE.

[Silent Hunter]

How long would final approval take?

[Silent Hunter]

And you were doing so well...

[Silent Hunter]

You've got to laugh or you'll cry.

[Silent Hunter]

Sure Europe has a second spike that will end up 10 times greater than the first spike.

But the death rate is remarkably low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Compare case graph vs death graph for France.

Are we dealing with:

(a) a less potent strain;
(b) a less vunerable population;
(c) vitamin D from summer helping to reduce the mortality rate;
(d) another factor...

It is very good news either way.

A lot more testing, better treatment and a slower growth compared to the first peak.

[Silent Hunter]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

In England it's schools and workplaces.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, that will cause Slovakia's infection numbers to spike something rotten. Give a great idea of spread though.

[Silent Hunter]

IIRC Czechia had a pretty mild first wave after closing its borders (a big deal for a Schengen country), then arguably relaxed too far.

[Silent Hunter]

I think we've learnt that suppressing an endemic disease in the long term is like going down to the beach and telling the tide not to come in.

[Silent Hunter]

Anyway, so Wales' government have now decided that they are the judges of what are essentials and what isn't.

[Silent Hunter]

Attempted arson on the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin

[Silent Hunter]

It seems to me that a halfway functioning society and suppressing the virus are not fully possible. The only way out is a vaccine and if that doesn't work (unlikely), then we will have tough choices to make.

[Silent Hunter]

We found online learning wasn't working for most pupils.

[Silent Hunter]

Bars and clubs, I can understand. Restaurants less so.

[Silent Hunter]

You don't spend as long in a restaurant as in a bar and sometimes families or individuals will go there. Also, you sit a lot further apart.