UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Silent Hunter]

Results are only coming from the north east and safe labout seats so far. I want to see other regions and swing seats first before i want to make any conclusion

True, we will need to see those... but this is worse than expected for Labour.

[Silent Hunter]

I think we can junk the exiit poll then...

lol it's been three results bud. 95% of all polls are junk to begin with.

Yes and none of them match it even in a close manner!

Are you seriously arguing that the results in three demographically close constituencies in north-east England are representative of the entire country's swing?

Hell, I'm American and I don't even think that makes sense.

No, but I am arguing that it doesn't match the exit poll at all.

[Silent Hunter]

I don't see how anyone could have realistically expected Sunderland to swing towards Labour this time round...

The exit poll was saying that...

[Silent Hunter]

The exit poll is right probably.

Maybe...

Tories win Swindon North but Labour up 7%

Labour up 10, Tories up 3. That's a 3.5% swing to them.

[Silent Hunter]

OK... I think the exit poll may be wrong in places.

[Silent Hunter]

Washington and Sunderland West shows another swing to the Tories. If this is in a safe seat... then what do the marginals look like?

[Silent Hunter]

National vote changes on 6 seats show a 1% swing to Labour

[Silent Hunter]

Labour hold Newcastle North, but another small swing to the Tories.

[Silent Hunter]

Rumors are that Kensington is tight between LAB and CON

Rumour has it that Labour is winning, which would be really bad news for the Tories and it would confirm that Labour fares better in remain areas. It is also in line with the YouGov prediction which had it as toss up.

It's London though... saw a big swing to Labour in 2015.

[Silent Hunter]

Nuneaton was Labour target 54 and only a 0.2% swing.

[Silent Hunter]

Sense that Bolsover could be close.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour hold Wrexham with a 0.15% swing to the Tories.

[Silent Hunter]

LABOUR GAIN RUTHERGLEN

First official gain of the night.

[Silent Hunter]

National vote change is currently a 0.7% swing to Labour.

[Silent Hunter]

National PV swing down to 0.25% to Labour.

[Silent Hunter]

Tooting wow

Big swing as well...

[Silent Hunter]

So is Labour overperforming?

Not sure yet...

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like swings from LAB to CON occur in (to borrow a term) titanium-Labour constituencies, like West Bromwich East.

Yes, that sounds right and it will effect the national vote share.

[Silent Hunter]

National PV change is c.1.4% swing to Labour.

[Silent Hunter]

Tories gain Dagenham from Lab

I think it's very Leave; certainly far whiter than the Barking half of the borough. Rainham has had UKIP councillors in the past.

[Silent Hunter]

BBC has revised its projection: Conservatives 318, Lab 267, SNP 32, LD 11, PC 3, Green 1. 8 short of a majority.

[Silent Hunter]

There is no viable alternative to a Tory minority government, I would say. Corbyn has done a lot, lot better than I or most people thought.

Although he has still lost, it was not the thumping I feared/predicted. The old adage still works "Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them".

[Silent Hunter]

Sky forecast:

Cons: 315-325

That sounds right. Basically a majority...

SNP have net lost 18 seats so far.

[Silent Hunter]

Popular vote:

LAB 9,409,613 - 41.2%
CON 9,350,002    - 40.9%

Corbyn getting Fairfax'd soon?

Lot of seats still out are safe Tory ones. 43-40 for the Tories sounds a realistic final result to me.

[Silent Hunter]

80 away currently from a Lab/SNP/LD coalition government. Could possibly make it if others are willing to go in as well.

Not with the seats still out.