UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Silent Hunter]

And you have the Tories talking about "Pre-emptive" use of nuclear weapons & more strikes & regime change with Assad !

The historical rationale for the UK and US not adopting a no-first use policy on nuclear weapons (although IIRC, they had one on chemical ones) was because tactical nuclear weapons deployed in West Germany were a deterrent against the rather large conventional superiority of the Warsaw Pact's forces.

[Silent Hunter]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

[Silent Hunter]

Miliband was not a strong progressive, supported intervention in Libya, turned against Corbyn, sure he wasn't Blair but he wasn't Corbyn either & he led Labour to a disastrous result

How did he turn against Corbyn?

Voted against him in the no-confidence motion of the PLP, I guess.

[Silent Hunter]

Broadchurch or Line of Duty, she said -  Haven't watched either
Indian or Chinese takeaway - Don't buy takeaways".

Those are straight answers...

[Silent Hunter]

Operative word being 'may'.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour getting 33% is no good if the Tories get 45%+.

[Silent Hunter]

Good question. Are the polls being skewed by the Corbyn fan club on the online panels?

[Silent Hunter]

In terms of students, many of them will likely be back home by polling day.

[Silent Hunter]

This might be more like 1987; Corbyn could get 33% of the vote, but with May at 45-46%, you'd still be looking at a near 100 majority.

Kinnock stayed on after 1987 after all...

[Silent Hunter]

Corbynmentum?

Bad polling? Labour was polling at 35% before the election in 2015 and look what happened there.

[Silent Hunter]

Remember a little thing called margin of error. If Labour are polling at 34%, then it could in reality be between 31% and 37%...

Also, online pollsters have the suspectibiity to the fact that people who vote in them are more politically engaged than on average...

[Silent Hunter]

Why would he do that? He's not gay.

[Silent Hunter]

A tiny advance on 2015 in Wales for Labour doesn't help them much - they still need to make a lot of gains in England (any in Scotland would help) to be even largest party.

It is possible that they are piling up votes in their safe seats and losing in marginals.

This is still May's to lose. Maybe not a landslide, but a majority greater than 50, I'd say.

[Silent Hunter]

When I canvassed in Thurrock in 2015, people barely had any conversations with me at all...

[Silent Hunter]

Definitely not cool. This is not the time for that sort of thing.

[Silent Hunter]

Definitely not cool. This is not the time for that sort of thing.

[Silent Hunter]

Local campaigning has resumed, full campaigning starting tomorrow.

[Silent Hunter]

@LordRennard
As campaigning resumes, it should be noted that 2,938,269 applied to register to vote since the start of the campaign, 1,054,308 under 25

Labour lost the popular vote in 2015 by just shy of 2 million, FWIW.

[Silent Hunter]

On Electoral Calculus, that would still give the Tories a majority of 26.

[Silent Hunter]

So whatever happened to the theory that the terrorist attack in Manchester was 100% ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to help the Tories?

It is only one poll. How far were YouGov off in 2015?

[Silent Hunter]

Corbyn is oversimplifying matters. People engage in terrorism for a lot of reasons.

[Silent Hunter]

most of these older voters will die & be replaced by Corbyn style raging liberal young voters.

Who will likely get more conservative as they grow up.

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Fewer in eight years than Syria in five

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Nearly all done by the terrorists. Also Daesh was formed in Syria.

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He may be a mass murderer, but he's a secular mass murderer?

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More I'd say that we didn't assist after we'd removed Gaddaffi.

[Silent Hunter]

I dare say that, to the average person under the age of 45, who have barely any recollection/experience of the troubles

The Good Friday Agreement was only 19 years ago. So people in their 30s would remember that.

[Silent Hunter]

YouGov's final pre-2015 poll was 34-34... it of course ended up 37-30...

[Silent Hunter]

Yes. People are getting over-excited over a poll that suggests Labour would still lose. There are no points for coming second in a football match, regardless of whether it's 1-0 or 4-0...