Silent Hunter's Rules of Elections

[Silent Hunter]

With thanks to JJ for the first two.

1. The polls matter. Any politician that says otherwise is one who is about to lose.
2. Any politician who is relying on a mass of unpolled voters to win, will not.
3. There's no such thing as a uniform swing.
4. Local election results have their uses, but only to a point. In some places, they should be ignored.
5. Any result on a different electoral system to the election taking place is highly unreliable.
6. Remember a little thing called 'margin of error'
7. Only take scientific polls seriously. Everything else is absolute junk.
8. Sub-samples can be significantly off.
9. 'Vox-pops' have limited use for forecasting or issue knowledge.
10. Ten people standing around a politician does not make a scientific sample.
11. Any partisan 'on the trail' analysis is almost certainly junk. What people hear on the doorstep depends on who they are.
12. The tabloid press is not a useful place for fact-checking or analysis (unless it's by academics).
13. Any politician who says 'go to my website' does not know his brief.
14. Statistics have their problems, especially on crime.
15. Past performance of polls is not a guide to future accuracy.
16. Exit polls can be wrong. Don't celebrate too early.
17. 10% counted is not a useful guide on its own.
18. Look at the individual wards or counties.
19. It isn't over until one candidate has an unbeatable lead.
20. Remember there is life after elections.