The Polls thread... (user search)
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,394
United Kingdom


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« on: April 10, 2005, 08:54:10 AM »

No new polls today... so I'll post a warning about reading too much into them.

1. Polls in the U.K have a habit of exaggerating any swings or trends... especially those that result from yesterday's headlins.

2. The incumbent party usually does better than the polls suggest (2001 was very much an exception to this rule) because, unlike the U.S, undecideds usually break towards the incumbent.

3. Don't read much into demographic or regional results. The samples are just too small to be useful.

4. Always read more than the headline figure

5. Always average MORI's two polls

6. Remember that different pollsters often measure different things.

7. Remember than just because in the past few elections party x has been under/over represented in the polls, it doesn't mean they are this time round.

8. Three little words: Margin of Error

9. Remember that most U.K polls would be regarded as junk polls in the U.S

10. The only poll that counts is on May the 5th

Good list, Al. You might want to add that some polls weight past vote recall, others don't.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,394
United Kingdom


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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2005, 03:33:37 AM »

On the average of the polls, there's only a 1% Labour to Tory swing.
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