Current Status of State Legislatures

[ElectionsGuy]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

[ElectionsGuy]

State Senates



State Houses



Overall Status



24 States have Republican trifectas - Republican governor and Republican state legislative majorities.
14 States have Democratic trifectas - Democratic governor and Democratic state legislative majorities.
3 States have Republican governors but Democratic state legislative supermajorities (MA, MD, VT).
3 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative supermajorities (KS, KY, LA).
4 States have Democratic governors but Republican state legislative majorities (MI, NC, PA, WI).
2 States have very closely divided state legislatures where one party control each, and a governor from the same party as the state house majority (MN, VA)

My thoughts for 2022:

 - MA and MD are likely gains for Dem trifectas.
 - NV's Dem trifecta is at serious risk, at least for governor.
 - R's are favorites for KS, MI, PA, and WI governorships to gain R trifectas. NC will continue having Cooper (D) since he just won.
  - MN could easily have both chambers be Republican, and make Walz's governorship a lot harder if he wins re-election (also underrated pickup here)
 - R's have at least a 25% chance or so of picking up one chamber in CO, ME, and NV. NM seems difficult based on current numbers but could see it if the governor race is unexpectedly close.
 - Of all the places Dems can pick off, AZ has the most tenuous R trifecta, similar to what D's have at the national level now. That is probably their best bet, but it's still less likely they'll get a trifecta in 2022 or even gain one chamber.

Republicans would likely need to be winning the statewide popular vote in Nevada by around 10 points to win a chamber of the legislature there given the lines that Dems drew.  New Mexico will also be tough to win the House assuming Dems draw the lines right.  I think the Maine House could well flip.  In Colorado, the senate is possible, but the House is probably close to impossible.

I looked at the State Senate proposal. It's not hard to see how R's can win 2 seats Dems currently hold on the outer part of the Vegas area.