ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
Posts: 21,102
Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65
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« on: May 11, 2021, 06:36:49 AM » |
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Trump's approval rating right before the election was around 45-46% in the RCP average. Incumbent presidents typically overshoot their approval by 1-2% in the election, with undecideds and (typically) an enthusiasm edge explaining that 1-2%. I used this to predict the popular vote of 51.5-47 Biden, and it ended up nearly spot on.
Also, one thing to note: Biden's approval right now, is almost exactly the inverse of Trump's throughout his presidency, so basically, nothing has changed so far in terms of coalition shifts.
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